South African consumers are facing sustained financial strain, with nearly four in ten (39%) expecting to miss at least one bill or loan repayment, according to TransUnion’s Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study (CPS). Persistently high inflation continues to reshape how households spend, borrow and save, driving more cautious financial behaviour and softer optimism.

The findings point to a consumer environment marked less by recovery and more by ongoing adjustment. While many households remain financially active, their ability to absorb additional pressure is narrowing, with affordability constraints increasingly shaping everyday decisions.

“Consumers are still managing, but the margin for error is shrinking,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Even modest increases in essential costs are forcing difficult trade-offs, which is reflected in lower confidence and more cautious credit behaviour.”

Financial Pressure Persists as Optimism Declines

Household finances remain under pressure, with mixed signals pointing to continued strain. In Q2 2026, 43% of South Africans said their household finances were better than planned, down slightly from 44% in Q2 2025. At the same time, 40% said their finances were worse than planned, pointing to persistent pressure rather than a clear recovery trend.

Forward-looking sentiment softened more noticeably. Financial optimism declined to 66%, down from 71% in Q2 2025, while pessimism increased to 19% from 15%. Income expectations also weakened, with 70% of consumers expecting their household income to increase over the next 12 months, compared to 75% a year ago.

A key driver of this shift is the widening gap between income growth and rising living costs. Only 37% of consumers believed their income was keeping up with inflation, while 41% disagreed. Inflation for everyday goods, including groceries and fuel, remained the dominant household concern, ranking among the top three worries for 79% of respondents.

This imbalance is increasingly affecting liquidity, which underscores the extent to which cost pressure continues to affect monthly cash flow and raise the risk of missed payments.

“Inflation remains the single biggest pressure point for households. Even where incomes are rising, essential costs quickly absorb that relief. This makes budgeting discipline and financial awareness more important, because households need to know where they can adjust when pressure rises,” said Hatea.

Households Cut Discretionary Spend to Stay Afloat

In response, South Africans are making practical adjustments to their household budgets. More than half of consumers (53%) said they had cut back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel, and entertainment over the past three months. A further 28% cancelled subscriptions or memberships, while 24% cancelled or reduced digital services such as wireless, cable TV, or internet.

Debt and savings behaviour also reflect caution. Around 32% of consumers said they had paid down debt faster, 27% saved more in an emergency fund or stokvel, and 20% saved more for retirement. At the same time, 14% cut back on retirement savings, 14% increased their use of available credit, and 13% used their retirement savings, signalling that financial resilience is uneven and for some, deteriorating.

Looking ahead, consumers expect essential categories to remain under pressure. Over the next three months, 37% expect their spending on bills and loans to increase, while 33% expect higher spending on medical care and services. Around 36% expect to increase contributions to retirement funds or investments, although 16% expect to decrease spending in that category.

“These findings show how carefully households are trying to manage trade-offs. Some consumers are still building buffers and paying down debt, while others are drawing on savings or credit to get through the month. That is why the broader picture is one of sustained financial adjustment rather than simple improvement,” said Hatea.

Consumers Want Credit but Few Are Willing to Apply

Credit remains a critical financial tool, but engagement is becoming more selective. The study found that 92% of South Africans view access to credit and lending products as important to achieving their financial goals, unchanged from a year ago. Perceptions of access improved, with 45% believing they have sufficient access to credit, up from 38% in Q2 2025. Around half (50%) of consumers believe they would be approved if they applied.

However, this confidence is not translating into increased demand. Only 36% plan to apply for new credit or refinance existing credit in the next 12 months, broadly unchanged year-over-year (YoY). Among those who considered applying for credit or refinancing, 45% ultimately abandoned their plans.

Cost remains the largest barrier, cited by 30% of consumers who abandoned applications. Credit history was cited by 23%, while 22% pointed to income or employment status. This suggests that while consumers still recognise the importance of credit, many remain cautious about taking on new commitments.

“Credit demand has not disappeared, but consumers are becoming more selective about the obligations they take on. For many households, access is not only about whether credit is available. It is also about whether the cost, repayment terms and approval process feel manageable,” said Hatea.

Where consumers do plan to apply, demand is shifting toward shorter-term and more flexible products. Among those planning new credit or refinancing activity, 34% intend to apply for a new personal loan, up from the previous quarter, while 29% plan to apply for a new credit card. A further 27% plan to use buy now, pay later services.

Fraud Exposure Rising as Digital Use Expands

Digital channels are also playing an increasingly important role in financial participation. Of the 30% who said they used digital banking services, around 46% reported using a digital bank, 56% used buy now, pay later services, and 23% engaged with digital or FinTech providers. This points to continued demand for speed and convenience, alongside the need for clear, responsible credit information.

As digital financial activity grows, identity protection remains an important concern. Around 56% of consumers reported being targeted by online, email, phone call, or text message fraud attempts in the past three months.

Among those targeted, the most common schemes were vishing (34%), smishing (33%), and phishing (31%). The study also found that 26% of consumers had been notified in the past three months that details about their identity or online accounts had been compromised in a data breach.

Consumers are taking some protective steps. In the past 60 days, 53% changed passwords because of cybersecurity concerns, 37% checked their credit reports, and 12% purchased internet security, anti-virus, or anti-malware protection. Yet uncertainty remains a barrier. Among consumers who took no action despite cybersecurity concerns, 56% said they were overwhelmed by what to do.

“As digital financial participation increases, security becomes a core part of financial confidence. Consumers need clear, practical guidance on how to protect their information and respond effectively when risks arise,” said Hatea.

Consumers Seek Control Amid Ongoing Financial Strain

Despite ongoing challenges, South African consumers remain financially engaged and active. Around 34% monitor their credit reports monthly, 13% weekly, and 6% daily. More than half (52%) believe their credit score would improve if businesses used information not found on standard credit reports, such as rental payments, short-term loan history, and buy now, pay later loans.

This reflects a broader shift toward financial visibility, as consumers look for tools and information to better manage their financial position in an uncertain environment.

The Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study highlights a market that is resilient but increasingly constrained. Households are adjusting spending, managing debt carefully, and seeking greater control, but persistent cost pressures are testing their capacity to absorb shocks.

“Consumers are doing their best to stay in control in a difficult environment,” Hatea concluded. “For lenders and financial service providers, the opportunity lies in supporting that effort, through transparent pricing, responsible access to credit, and tools that help consumers anticipate and manage financial stress before it escalates.”.

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.

South African consumers are reshaping how they access and use credit as affordability pressures persist, according to TransUnion’s Q1 2026 South Africa Industry Insights Report. The report’s findings show that credit demand remained resilient, but diverging risk dynamics are increasingly evident across products and providers. Consumers are relying more heavily on existing credit facilities while also shifting toward more accessible lending options that are typically employed by higher risk borrowers to manage short-term liquidity needs.

Diverging Trends in Bank and Non-Bank Personal Loans

Personal loan markets continued to show distinctly different trajectories during the quarter. Bank personal loan originations recorded modest growth of 2.5% YoY, while the number of active accounts increased by 1.4% over the same period. Looking below this headline growth reveals a shift in lending mix by borrower risk profiles, with below-prime originations rising by 5.0% while prime and above segments declined by 3.8%. Gen Z participation also increased significantly, with originations among this segment rising 21% YoY, bringing their share to 23% (up from 19.5% in Q1 2025) of total bank personal loan originations.

Credit performance improved in the bank personal loan segment, as account-level delinquencies (3+ months in arrears, or MIA) decreased by 256 basis points to 26.7%. This reflects tighter underwriting, portfolio stabilisation, and improved repayment behaviour following earlier periods of financial stress.

In contrast, non-bank personal loans continued to expand rapidly. Originations grew by 19.0% YoY, while active accounts increased by 27.6%. This growth was driven largely by younger consumers, with Gen Z accounting for 53% of originations in the quarter.

At the same time, lending dynamics for non-bank personal loans have evolved. Declining average loan sizes and balances point to a shift toward smaller value and more frequent borrowing patterns. This reflects a combination of lender appetite for smaller, shorter-term exposure and continued consumer demand for accessible liquidity, with these products increasingly used to support short-term cash flow needs rather than larger, structured borrowing.

However, this rapid growth has been accompanied by rising risk. Account-level delinquencies increased by 193 bps to 49.8%, with delinquency levels now approaching half of all active non-bank personal loans. This highlights elevated stress within the segment and points to increasing pressure among higher-risk borrowers.

“Bank personal loans are entering a more stable phase characterised by controlled growth, targeted expansion into younger and moderate-risk segments and improved credit performance,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “While non-bank personal loans are expanding financial inclusion and access to liquidity, this growth is being driven by higher-risk and more financially vulnerable segments experiencing rising credit stress, raising important considerations around sustainability and risk management.”

Reliance on Credit Cards Increased as Repayment Pressure Grew

The credit card market also showed a clear shift in growth dynamics, with balance expansion increasingly driven by existing accounts rather than new cards issuance. Originations volume declined by 9.5% YoY, alongside a 4.1% YoY reduction in average credit limits, reflecting a more cautious lending environment.

Despite this, outstanding balances grew by 8.8% YoY, supported by increased utilisation as well as emerging repayment pressure which reduced card repayment levels. The number of active consumers rose by 6.4%, while average balances per account increased by 2.5%.  

Delinquencies also rose YoY, with account-level delinquencies increasing by 66 basis points to 13.6%, while delinquent balances increased by 16% YoY. As a consequence of increased delinquencies, lower repayment levels contributed to the rise in total account balances over the past year.

“While increased utilisation is contributing to balance growth, the faster rise in delinquent balances indicates that repayment pressure is becoming a more persistent driver,” said Hatea. “Credit cards are playing a dual role in the current environment. They are both a liquidity tool, supporting short-term cash flow needs, and a channel where financial pressure is becoming more visible through rising delinquency.”

Resilient Demand for Vehicle Asset Finance Supported by Increased Access to New Vehicles

Vehicle finance continued to demonstrate steady growth, supported by strong participation from younger consumers. Gen Z and Millennials now account for two-thirds (66%) of all originations, which increased by 11.6% YoY. This reflects sustained demand for mobility while highlighting the growing role that first-time and early-life stage borrowers play in sustaining market activity.

At the same time, there is a clear shift in the composition of financing, with the ratio of used to new vehicles declining to 0.93. This indicates that more new vehicles are now being financed than used, structurally elevating average origination values. Notably, this trend occurred even as more affordable new entrants, particularly Chinese brands, gained traction in the market, with one in five vehicles sold now coming from these manufacturers.

On the risk side, subprime originations have increased significantly, rising by over 33.5% YoY and now accounting for a quarter (25%) of all new vehicle finance. This suggests that growth is increasingly being driven by higher-risk segments, as lenders balance expansion with the need to sustain volumes.

Despite this increase in borrowing by riskier consumers, repayment performance improved, with account-level 3+ MIA delinquencies declining by 80 bps to 7.1%, indicating relatively strong borrower management of vehicle loans.

“Overall, the vehicle asset finance market reflects a complex but resilient environment. Demand remains strong, supported by younger consumers and improved access to new vehicles. However, rising exposure to higher-risk borrowers and increasing loan sizes will require enhanced early risk detection tools going forward to enable mobility and inclusion,” said Hatea.

Table 1: Key South African Consumer Credit Market Metrics (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026)

 *Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

“South Africa’s Q1 2026 insights highlight a credit landscape that remains active but increasingly segmented. While demand for credit persists, affordability constraints are reshaping how consumers borrow, with greater reliance on short-term liquidity and higher-risk products,” said Hatea. “These trends underscore the need for lenders to balance growth with prudent risk management while supporting sustainable access to credit across the market.”

South Africa’s passenger vehicle market remained resilient in the first quarter of 2026, but demand is evolving. Rising affordability pressures, higher fuel costs, the growth of Chinese brands and shifting powertrain preferences are reshaping the automotive landscape.

According to TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Mobility Insights Report, passenger vehicle sales reached 114,517 units in Q1 2026, slightly higher than the 114,246 units recorded in Q4 2025. Year-on-year (YoY) growth eased to 12.6%, down from the stronger performance seen during parts of 2025, but demand remained elevated despite a more uncertain macroeconomic environment.

A Stronger Start, But Growing External Pressures

The report, which provides a first quarter overview, indicates that South Africa entered 2026 on a stronger economic footing. This was supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates over the previous year, reduced load-shedding, and improved financial conditions.

However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated oil price shock have heightened downside risks. In March 2026, inflation increased from 3.1% to 4.0% in April 2026, while the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently raised the prime lending rate by 25-basis points in May 2026. Combined with higher fuel and transport costs, these factors are expected to place renewed pressure on affordability and consumer spending.

“Vehicle demand has not collapsed, but the market is moving into a more selective phase,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Consumers are still buying vehicles, but affordability is no longer only about the purchase price. Fuel costs, financing costs, insurance, servicing, and total cost of ownership are becoming central to the decision.”

Residual Value and the True Cost of Ownership

The report found that residual values are becoming an increasingly important component of vehicle affordability. As finance terms extend beyond six years for many buyers, depreciation and resale performance play a growing role in ownership economics, giving brands that retain value more effectively a competitive advantage.

The shift towards longer financing terms and the use of balloon structures reflects a growing focus on monthly affordability and cash-flow flexibility. However, this trend also increases exposure to residual value risk. Where vehicle values underperform expectations, consumers may face refinancing pressure or negative equity at trade-in, making used vehicle market performance an increasingly critical consideration.

Chinese Brands Reshape the Competitive Landscape

One of the most notable structural shifts is the continued rise of Chinese automotive brands. Chinese car sales grew by 75% YoY in Q1 2026, significantly outpacing traditional OEM growth of 2% and the broader passenger and light commercial vehicle (LCV) market growth of 12.7%. As a result, Chinese brands accounted for more than 19% of new passenger and LCV sales nationally, meaning nearly one in five new vehicles sold in South Africa was from a Chinese manufacturer in Q1 2026.

The shift is no longer driven solely by entry-level pricing. Chinese brands are increasingly competing on technology, features, fuel efficiency, range, warranty offerings, and perceived long-term value. On a combined portfolio basis, Chery Group, including Chery, Jetour, Omoda, and Jaecoo, recorded combined sales of 16,094 units in Q1 2026, positioning itself as a top three automotive player.

“Chinese brands have moved beyond the role of price disruptors. They are becoming structural industry players, influencing dealer networks, financing ecosystems, ownership perceptions, and the wider discussion around localisation and industrial competitiveness,” said Hatea.

Diverging Trends Across New and Used Markets

The new and used vehicle markets continued to show differing trends. NaTIS data indicates that new vehicle registrations increased by 11.6% YoY in Q1 2026, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In contrast, used vehicle registrations increased by 2.6%, suggesting a modest recovery in the secondary market, although it still trails the stronger momentum seen in new vehicle sales.

The used-to-new registration ratio declined to 2.3 in Q1 2026, the lowest level recorded over the reporting period. While used vehicles still make up the majority at 69% of total registrations, the share of new vehicles has risen to 31%, up from 23% in Q4 2025. This shift has been supported by favourable pricing dynamics, with new vehicle inflation falling to 0.8%, while used vehicle prices remained in deflation at -1.3%.

Confidence Rises, But Caution Remains

Dealer sentiment also reflects the stronger demand environment. New vehicle dealer confidence increased to 67 in Q1 2026, its highest level in 13 years. However, the report cautions that increasing fuel costs, inflation risk, and rising operating expenses could create more challenging conditions in the quarters ahead.

Forward-looking consumer data remains constructive. TransUnion’s Consumer Pulse Survey found that consumers likely to purchase a vehicle in the next few months increased from 19% in Q4 2025 to 22% in Q1 2026. Short-term purchase intent is strongest amongst younger consumers, with 26% of Gen Z and 24% of Millennials indicating plans to buy.

A Gradual Shift in Powertrain Preferences

Powertrain preferences are also evolving. Internal combustion engine vehicles remain the most popular choice, preferred by 49% of consumers in Q1 2026. However, interest in hybrid electric vehicles has grown significantly to 39%, up from 30% in Q4 2025, making hybrids the leading electrified option. Interest in both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids also increased, with each reaching 26%.

“Hybrids are emerging as a practical transition pathway for South African consumers. They offer fuel savings and lower running costs without full dependence on charging infrastructure, which makes them relevant in a market where affordability and operating certainty remain critical,” said Hatea.

A Market Entering Its Next Phase

While domestic demand continues to support the industry, passenger vehicle exports remain under pressure amid trade uncertainty, geopolitical disruption, protectionism, and changing decarbonisation requirements.

“The South African automotive market is not reverting to its previous structure. The next phase will be defined by affordability, value, access to finance and how effectively industry players respond to evolving consumer behaviour,” said Hatea.

• More than four in ten (41%) of South Africans cite inflation for everyday goods as their top financial concern, while 35% of all surveyed expect to be unable to pay at least one current bill or loan in full
• Consumers are actively adjusting behaviour: 51% said they cut discretionary spending, 35% paid down debt faster, and 29% increased emergency savings or stokvel contributions in the last three months
• Nearly seven in ten (69%) remain optimistic about their household finances over the next 12 months, although this has declined from 72% in Q4 2025, reflecting more cautious confidence

South African consumers are adjusting their financial behaviour in response to ongoing cost pressures, with TransUnion's Q1 2026 Consumer Pulse Study^[1]  revealing meaningful shifts in how households spend, save and manage credit. While many households remain under financial strain, the findings point to a shift toward more deliberate and considered financial decision-making.

The study found that inflation for everyday goods remains the leading financial concern, cited by 41% of respondents as their top financial worry. 35% of consumers indicated that they expect to be unable to pay at least one of their current bills or loans in full.

Against this backdrop, consumer sentiment remains measured. More than two-thirds (69%) of respondents said they are optimistic about their household finances over the next 12 months, down from 72% in Q4 2025, while 14% expressed pessimism and 17% indicated they are neither optimistic nor pessimistic.

“Consumers are not necessarily experiencing financial ease, but they are responding in practical ways to manage pressure,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “What we are seeing is a shift toward more deliberate financial behaviour, where households are actively adjusting spending, prioritising obligations and, where they can, building financial buffers.”

Spending Pullbacks and Savings Adjustments Take Hold

In response to continued financial pressure, many South Africans have adjusted their financial behaviour over the past three months. More than half of the respondents (51%) reported cutting back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel and entertainment, while 31% said they cancelled subscriptions or memberships.

At the same time, some households report taking steps to strengthen their financial position in the past three months. The study found that 35% of respondents said they paid down debt faster, while 29% reported increasing contributions to emergency savings or stokvels. A further 23% said they increased their retirement savings.

“These behaviours reflect a more cautious and intentional approach to money management. Consumers are looking for ways to maintain stability, whether by reducing non-essential expenses, managing debt more actively or setting aside funds for future needs,” said Hatea.

Financial Outlook Reflects Cautious Confidence

Despite ongoing affordability challenges, the study points to cautious consumer expectations at the time it was conducted. The research was carried out in late February, prior to recent geopolitical developments and ahead of the most recent South African Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announcement, which left the prime lending rate unchanged. Emerging global market volatility may further shape consumer sentiment and financial behaviour going forward.

More than one in three consumers (35%) expect their spending on bills and loans such as housing, utilities, insurance and credit cards to increase over the next three months. The same percentage (35%) anticipate higher spending on medical care and services during that timeframe. Additionally, 38% expect to increase contributions toward retirement funds and investments. Conversely, a smaller percentage said they’d increase their spending on in-store or online retail shopping such as clothing, electronics and durable goods (29%), large purchases like appliances and cars (26%), digital services (25%) and discretionary spending (21%).

“This pattern suggests that consumers are prioritising essential and future-oriented expenses, while remaining more selective in discretionary areas. It reflects a mindset where financial decisions are being made with greater scrutiny,” said Hatea.

Credit Remains Important, but Caution is Evident

Access to credit continues to play an important role in how consumers manage their finances. However, when it comes to new credit products, TransUnion’s survey indicates that households are approaching borrowing more carefully in the current environment.

Among respondents, 41% indicated that they have used Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services in the past year. For those who have used BNPL, avoiding credit card interest was a key motivation, while non-users most frequently cited avoiding additional debt as the top reason for never using BNPL.

“The role of credit is evolving,” Hatea said. “Consumers still rely on it to manage cash flow and navigate short-term pressures, but there is also a clear awareness of the need to avoid overextension. That balance between access and caution is becoming more important.”

Adapting to a More Demanding Financial Environment

The quarterly findings point to a consumer environment defined less by financial comfort and more by ongoing adjustment. While sentiment has softened slightly from the previous quarter, many South Africans are actively managing their finances amid ongoing cost pressures.

“Rather than a broad sense of financial confidence, we are seeing a more grounded and pragmatic approach,” said Hatea. “Consumers are making deliberate trade-offs to stay on top of their obligations and build resilience where possible. As economic uncertainty persists, the ability to adapt spending, savings and credit behaviour is likely to remain a defining feature of the South African consumer landscape.”

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here. 
 

^[1] Methodology: Online survey of 992 South African adults conducted 10–23 February 2026 by TransUnion in partnership with Dynata.

While some improvement in repayment behaviour was observed toward the end of 2025, this stability is proving short-lived. Rising living costs, increasing reliance on credit, and limited financial buffers mean that many consumers are entering 2026 in a vulnerable position, with little capacity to absorb additional economic shocks.

The decision to leave interest rates unchanged may offer a sense of short-term stability, but it does little to ease the underlying financial strain facing households.

“Stable rates do not translate into financial relief for most consumers,” says Fatgie Adams, Head of Credit Risk Solutions at TransUnion. “Many households are already under pressure, and upcoming increases in fuel and food costs are likely to erode any temporary stability created by a hold decision.”

Insights from the TransUnion Q4 2025 Consumer Pulse Study (CPS) show that households have already begun adjusting their behaviour in response to financial stress. More than half of consumers report cutting discretionary spending, while a significant portion have reduced clothing purchases, delayed major expenses, and scaled back on services such as subscriptions and digital platforms. At the same time, the study indicates a growing reliance on credit, with a notable share of consumers using credit to manage shortfalls in their monthly budgets.

This behavioural shift is reinforced by credit performance trends from the TransUnion Q4 2025 Industry Insights Report (IIR), which highlights continued strain in key segments. Credit card delinquency remains elevated at 17.4% (balance-level), while non-bank personal loan delinquency is critically high at 53.4% (consumer-level). These figures highlight deep vulnerability among financially stretched consumers, with short-term credit products showing the most acute distress. Although home loan delinquency remains relatively stable at 7.5%, it is still elevated, pointing to persistent pressure even within more structured credit product.

“Consumers may appear stable on the surface, but in reality, many are already in a form of financial triage,” Adams adds. “A flat rate environment simply provides time to prepare, it does not remove the pressure.”

With fuel prices expected to rise sharply in the coming months and food costs remaining persistently high, the overall cost of living is likely to increase further, placing additional strain on already stretched household budgets.

Regardless of the outcome, the broader picture remains one of rising pressure on household finances. The combination of higher living costs, constrained income growth and existing debt obligations means that many consumers will need to navigate the months ahead with increased caution.

Maintaining a clear view of essential expenses, staying on top of repayments, and making considered financial decisions will be critical as cost pressures continue to build.

TransUnion’s Q4 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report shows the consumer credit market shifting from a tentative recovery to broader stabilisation driven by steady inflation and interest rates, as well as improvements in consumers’ repayment behaviour. During the quarter there was again notable growth in vehicle asset finance and the personal loans market, while retail credit saw a change in product preference with consumers making smaller purchases. 

South Africa's vehicle finance market continued its expansion in Q4 2025, with a fifth consecutive quarter of sustained growth. The growth in total loan balances continued to outpace new account volumes, indicating a firmer continued recovery in demand supported by a more accommodative interest rate environment following a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut in November, which further improved household affordability. Origination volumes rose 9.9% year-over-year (YoY), supported by strong consumer interest in affordable new car models and sustained lender confidence. The average new loan amount also climbed, by 3.3% YoY.

Much of this growth was driven by younger consumers, with Gen Z and Millennials^[1] accounting for 66% of all originations. Lenders demonstrated an increased risk appetite, with originations to riskier below-prime borrowers growing by 20.2% YoY. This expansion coincided with positive repayment performance, as account-level delinquencies (the percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears) declining by 59 bps YoY to 6.8%.

The market dynamics were further shaped by a significant shift in the used-to-new vehicle financing ratio, which declined to 0.96 used vehicles for every new one financed, down from 1.56 in Q4 2024. This shift towards more new vehicle financing reflects the availability of budget-friendly new models and favourable inflation trends.

More consumers chose longer loan terms to improve monthly affordability too: in Q4 2025, 56.4% of consumers chose a loan term of 72 months or more, compared to 51.9% who made the same choice one year prior. This marked the first quarter this decade that more than half of consumers chose the longest vehicle finance term available.

“The change in the used‑to‑new finance ratio indicates stronger momentum in new‑vehicle financing and can also be attributed to shifting consumer preferences,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “With advancements in technology, new vehicles often offer more features, safety upgrades, and improved fuel efficiency compared to older models, along with longer and more comprehensive warranties.”

“The data on longer loan terms highlights how consumers are adjusting their spending patterns and making strategic financial decisions. By opting for longer loan terms, many are able to manage their monthly payments more effectively and potentially afford a newer or higher-priced vehicle,” she added.

Diverging Strategies Shaped Personal Loan Market

The personal loan market showed a distinct divergence in Q4 2025 as bank and non-bank lenders pursued contrasting growth strategies. Bank personal loan originations grew by 10.2% YoY with average new account amounts up by 10.7% YoY, extending larger loan amounts to lower-risk consumer cohorts. This disciplined approach yielded better repayment performance as account-level delinquencies for bank loans dropped by 271 bps YoY to 27.0%.

Conversely, non‑bank lenders grew their portfolios quickly by shifting toward smaller loans, with average new account amounts down 2.8% YoY and the total volume of originations up 14.7% YoY. Younger borrowers drove a significant portion of this growth, with the volume of new loans issued to Gen Z borrowers climbing 39.6%. However, in contrast to bank lenders, which target relatively better risk borrowers, non-bank lenders’ customer bases are heavily skewed toward the riskiest subprime^[2] consumers. As a result of this exposure, account-level delinquencies for non-bank loans remained elevated at 48.0%.

“These trends highlight a clear market split. Banks successfully managed risk while expanding their active books through larger loans to lower-risk borrowers. Meanwhile, non-bank lenders extended credit access to higher-risk borrowers through smaller loans, but faced notable repayment strain,” said Hatea.

Retail Credit Adapted as Buy Now Pay Later Gained Traction

The retail credit sector showed signs of a strategic shift in Q4 2025, influenced by changing consumer behaviours and the growing adoption of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) solutions. While the clothing account sector showed resilience account originations growing by 7.2% YoY, other areas of retail credit saw a decline in new account openings. Retail instalment origination volumes decreased 19.4% YoY, and revolving credit originations fell 16.6% YoY.

This downturn in traditional retail credit originations could be influenced by increasing popularity of BNPL solutions in the market. TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Consumer Pulse Study shows 57% of South African respondents hold a BNPL product, and 36% have used a BNPL product multiple times in the last 12 months to pay for goods and services.

“Consumers appear to be choosing these flexible payment options for smaller credit purchases, drawn to their fixed or interest-free instalment plans,” said Hatea. “However, this trend has not yet significantly affected clothing accounts, which benefit from strong consumer loyalty and accessibility.”

Despite fewer new accounts in some retail segments, possibly also influenced by tighter lending policies, portfolio health shows positive signs. Account-level delinquencies for clothing accounts fell 213 bps YoY to 24.5% and retail revolving delinquencies dropped 238 bps YoY to 17.6%. Lenders also adapted their strategies: the average clothing account limits went up 6.8% YoY, while the average limit for revolving accounts also grew, by 3.9% YoY. This suggests a focus on providing more credit to existing, credit-healthy customers while managing the influx of new, potentially riskier borrowers.

Table 1: Key South African Consumer Credit Market Metrics (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)

*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

“In Q4 2025, lenders widened access to credit where consumers showed stronger repayment discipline, tightening where risk accumulated and reshaping their portfolios towards lower risk borrowers,” Hatea said. “The data suggests that lenders’ priorities are shifting from stabilisation towards sustainable momentum as they pair cautious growth with sharper exposure discipline, deeper affordability insights and refined product strategies.”

^[1] TransUnion age distribution: Gen Z (Born 1995 – 2010); Millennials (Born 1980-1994); Gen X (Born 1965-1979); Baby Boomers (Born 1946-1964)

^[2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).

South Africa’s automotive market closed 2025 at its strongest level in more than a decade, supported by easing interest rates, improving vehicle pricing, and a decisive shift in how consumers evaluate vehicle affordability. While headline sales reflect a clear recovery, underlying patterns reveal a market increasingly shaped by value, sharper segmentation and intensifying competition.

According to the TransUnion South Africa Q4 2025 Mobility Insights Report, new passenger vehicle sales reached 422,103 units in 2025, representing 20.1% year-on-year growth. Momentum remained firm into the final quarter, with 114,246 vehicles sold in Q4, making it the strongest quarterly performance based on volume of the post-pandemic period.

“This recovery is real, but it is far from uniform,” says Ayesha Hatea, Senior Director of Research and Consulting at TransUnion Africa. “What we’re seeing is not a return to old buying patterns, but a more deliberate, affordability-driven market where consumers are weighing value, monthly repayments and long-term ownership costs far more carefully.”

Value Brands Cement a Structural Shift

One of the standout trends of 2025 has been the continued rise of Chinese manufacturers. These Chinese brands expanded at nearly nine times the pace of the overall market, lifting their share to more than 17% of total new passenger vehicle sales, up from less than 5% just four years ago.

Aggressive pricing of enhanced specifications, extended warranties and growing consumer trust have fuelled intensifying competitive pressure across all segments of the market.

“This is no longer a short-term disruption,” Hatea explains. “Value brands are now firmly embedded in South Africa’s automotive ecosystem, and their success highlights how decisively affordability and perceived value are influencing purchasing decisions.”

New Vehicles Regain Ground as Pricing Gaps Narrow

Improved affordability conditions shifted demand back toward new vehicles in Q4. New vehicle registrations rose 30.1% year-on-year, compared with just 0.7% growth in used vehicle registrations, narrowing the gap between the two segments. The used-to-new ratio declined to 2.9, down from approximately 3.8 in 2024.

This shift was supported by record-low new vehicle inflation of 1.2%, alongside 1.9% deflation in used vehicle prices, making monthly repayments on new vehicles increasingly competitive.

These trends align with a broader macroeconomic environment focused on easing pressure on household finances, as reinforced in South Africa’s 2026 National Budget delivered by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, which emphasised fiscal stability and moderating inflation. Against this backdrop, TransUnion’s data shows vehicle demand remains highly sensitive to interest rates, fuel costs and financing conditions.

“When repayment gaps narrow, buyer behaviour changes quickly,” says Hatea. “But affordability remains the single most powerful lever in sustaining demand.”

Younger Buyers Drive Momentum as Premium Demand Cools

Consumer sentiment showed modest improvement in Q4, with the share of consumers planning to buy a vehicle in the next three months rising from 17% in Q3 to 19% in Q4, according to the TransUnion Consumer Pulse Survey.

That improvement was driven primarily by younger consumers. Gen Z (ages 18-29) purchase intent increased to 25%, while Millennials (ages 30-45) rose to 21%, compared to 14% for Gen X (ages 46-61) and 7% for Baby Boomers (ages 62-80), underscoring a clear generational divide in demand.

At the same time, demand among high-income households has begun to normalise. While consumers in the highest income segment continued to show the strongest purchase intent at 20%, this marked a notable decline from 34% in Q3, indicating a cooling in premium-led purchasing.

“The centre of gravity is shifting,” Hatea notes. “Growth is increasingly coming from younger, more price-sensitive buyers rather than the top end of the market.”

Electrification Advances, on Practical Terms

Electrified mobility continued to gain traction in 2025, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reaching approximately 16,700 units, representing 4% of new passenger vehicle sales, up from just 0.3% in 2021.

Growth remains firmly hybrid-led, with traditional hybrids representing nearly three-quarters of NEV sales, reflecting consumer preference for lower upfront costs and limited reliance on charging infrastructure. Battery-electric vehicles remain concentrated among higher-income buyers.

“South Africa’s electrification journey is progressing, but it is pragmatic rather than aggressive,” says Hatea. “Hybrids are bridging the gap between affordability and sustainability.”

A Market Rebalanced, Not Recovered

As the industry looks ahead to 2026, TransUnion’s data suggests a market that has stabilised but remains finely balanced. “The next phase of growth will be incremental and affordability-driven,” Hatea concludes. “Manufacturers, dealers and financiers that align closely with how South Africans are actually buying, not how they bought a decade ago will be best positioned to compete.”

Read the full Q4 2025 TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report here.

South African households are showing signs of meaningful financial adaptation amid ongoing cost pressures, according to TransUnion’s latest Q4 2025 Consumer Pulse Study. While inflation and affordability challenges persist, consumers are becoming more intentional in their financial management, tightening budgets, prioritising savings, and building greater digital and financial awareness.

“Consumers are entering 2026 with a renewed sense of financial discipline,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “We’re seeing households make more deliberate choices, reducing non-essential spending, paying down debt and preparing for the future. This speaks to a financial confidence grounded in awareness and adaptability.”

Financial Adaptation in a High-Cost Environment

Nearly half (48%) of South Africans said their household finances were better than planned in Q4 2025, a sign of growing stability in an economy still defined by high living costs. Yet, 36% of consumers anticipate being unable to meet at least one bill or loan payment in full, revealing the continued strain on affordability.

In response, many households are taking deliberate steps to manage their finances. Half have reduced discretionary spending on non-essential activities such as dining out, entertainment, and travel, while more than a third (34%) have cancelled subscriptions or memberships. At the same time, 38% of consumers plan to increase their contributions toward retirement savings or investments, 35% are accelerating debt repayments, and 27% are setting aside more in emergency funds or stokvels.

These actions suggest that South Africans are not merely reacting to economic pressure but are intentionally strengthening their financial resilience. “Consumers are demonstrating a more strategic approach to money management,” said Hatea. “They’re preserving stability today while laying the groundwork for tomorrow.”

Younger Optimism Meets Experienced Caution

Generational insights reveal that financial resilience takes on different forms across age groups. Younger consumers, particularly Gen Z (18-28 years) and Millennials (29-44 years), tend to be the most optimistic about their financial future and are also the most likely to apply for new credit within the next year, with 42% and 39% expressing this intent, respectively.

In contrast, Gen X (45-60 years) and Baby Boomers (61+) demonstrate a more cautious approach, with only 33% and 9% likely to seek new credit, instead prioritising debt reduction and savings. Spending patterns further illustrate this divide: younger consumers plan to increase their spending on digital services such as internet and other discretionary activities like dining out or travel, while older generations indicate they will prioritise boosting retirement funds and strengthening emergency savings in the coming months.

Credit Access and Inclusion

Credit remains a vital tool for long-term financial mobility, with 91% of South Africans recognising its importance in achieving their financial goals. Yet, access to credit is uneven: only 42% feel they have adequate access, while 33% believe they do not. Despite this strong demand, just 36% plan to apply for new credit or refinance existing debt over the next year, with credit cards (30%), personal loans (28%), and car loans (20%) among the most popular products.

However, 44% of those who considered applying ultimately decided against it, citing barriers such as high borrowing costs (33%), fear of rejection due to their credit history (26%), and concerns over income or employment (24%).

“These findings highlight a need for more inclusive and transparent lending models,” said Hatea. “Consumers believe that a broader use of alternative data, such as rental or buy-now-pay-later payment histories can help extend fair access to credit while supporting responsible borrowing.”

Digital Fraud Threats Drive Demand for Simplified Protection Tools

Digital fraud continues to pose a significant threat to South Africans, with 59% targeted in Q4 and 12% falling victim. The most commonly reported schemes include money or gift card scams (32%), vishing (30%), phishing (29%), and smishing (27%). Despite these threats, 46% of consumers successfully detected and avoided fraud, reflecting growing vigilance. Among those affected by data breaches, 42% changed their passwords, 35% checked accounts for unauthorised activity, 30% closed compromised accounts, and only 16% signed up for identity monitoring.

In the past two months, reacting to security concerns, 58% changed passwords, 23% enabled multi-factor authentication, and 37% checked their credit reports. Yet, many remain unsure how to respond: 53% of those who took no action cited uncertainty about the steps to take, while 22% felt overwhelmed by cybersecurity information.

Empowered and Financially Aware Consumers

Financial awareness among South Africans continues to rise, with 93% recognising the importance of credit monitoring. Engagement with credit reports is also increasing, with 31% checking monthly, 16% weekly, and 8% daily.

Nearly half of consumers believe their credit score would improve if alternative data, such as rental payments or buy-now-pay-later histories, were considered, particularly among younger generations.

“This growing awareness of credit health is encouraging,” said Hatea. “Consumers are becoming more proactive and engaged, and that creates a powerful opportunity for businesses and lenders to support them with relevant, transparent financial tools.”

Building Financial Confidence for the Future

The Q4 findings paint a picture of a nation adapting with purpose, cautious but confident, pragmatic yet forward-looking. As South Africans continue to manage affordability pressures, the emphasis on long-term financial planning, inclusion, and protection is reshaping how consumers engage with the financial system.

“Resilience has become the defining characteristic of South African consumers,” said Hatea. “They’re not waiting for conditions to change, they’re taking control of their financial journeys, showing that confidence and caution can coexist.”

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.

Notes to Editors: An online survey of 992 adults in South Africa was conducted between 25 September and 9 October 2025 by TransUnion with Dynata, using an online panel across desktop, mobile, and tablet. The survey, administered in English, included respondents aged 18 and older from all regions, with quotas applied to ensure demographic representation by age, gender, household income, race, and region. Generational groups were defined as follows: Gen Z (18–28), Millennials (29–44), Gen X (45–60), and Baby Boomers (61+).

TransUnion’s Q3 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report highlights key trends in the South Africa credit market: vehicle asset finance continued its recovery, with stable account volumes and rising balances supported by longer loan terms and more affordable vehicle choices. Credit card usage expanded, with total book balances growing faster than account volumes, even as average balances per card remained stable and new account credit limits were reduced. Non-bank personal loans surged, driven by higher-risk consumers, though elevated delinquencies underscore the importance of strong affordability checks and consumer safeguards.

These shifting patterns in credit demand, usage and risk occurred against the backdrop of a cautiously improving economy. A 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut in July, driven by favourable inflation trends, gave consumers some relief. However, unemployment remained high^[1] at 31.9% for the quarter, highlighting persistent labour pressures that constrained the wallets of many consumers.

Within this context, the credit market showed signs of strategic adjustment. Consumers — especially younger cohorts — relied more on credit to manage day-to-day expenses and cash flow, while lenders recalibrated growth and risk strategies.

Vehicle Asset Finance Recovery Extended

South Africa’s vehicle finance market grew for the third consecutive quarter, driven by younger consumers in prime and below-prime risk tiers. New account originations rose 17.2% year-over-year (YoY), with the average new loan amount increasing to R412,000, up from R400,962 a year earlier.

Growth was supported by a shift in the used-to-new financing ratio, which fell from 2.67 in Q3 2020 to 1.03 in Q3 2025. Near-parity between new and used financing reflects the availability of budget-friendly new models, often compact or entry-level, that have narrowed the cost gap.

Consumers also opted for longer loan terms, prioritising monthly affordability over total lifetime financing cost. In Q3 2025, 49.6% of loans were for 72 months or longer, up from 38.2% four years ago and 45.6% in Q3 2024.

First-time buyer participation remained strong at 42% of originations, slightly up from 40% a year earlier. Nearly one-third (32%) of originations were to Gen Z consumers (born 1995–2010). Among first-time buyers, 80% were prime or below^[2], compared to 48% for existing borrowers.

Account-level delinquencies stayed elevated at 7.2%, which underscores the need for early warning and pre-delinquency outreach, especially for borrowers showing signs of payment strain and increased reliance on credit.

“The market is stabilising away from the post-pandemic skew toward used vehicles, supporting consumers’ preferences for warranty coverage and predictable maintenance while expanding inclusion and access,” said Hatea. “In an increasingly competitive market, lenders need to calibrate loan terms, deposits, and residual values to match current conditions and customise products and insurance bundles for segments returning to new purchases.”

Credit Cards Reinforced Role as Financial Buffers for Consumers

Consumers remained under pressure: more than four in ten (41%) households said their income was not keeping up with inflation in Q3 2025, and 77% listed inflation for everyday goods as a top concern, according to TransUnion’s Q3 Consumer Pulse Study.

As consumers sought liquidity amid these concerns, credit card originations rose 13.8% YoY, although average credit limits on new cards issued fell 9.8% YoY. Outstanding balances increased 7.7% YoY, and average balances per card were up 2.6% YoY. The risk mix of card originations shifted towards higher risk borrowers: subprime consumers comprised 58.3% of new cards opened in Q3 2025, up from 52.4% a year earlier, while the share held by prime and above borrowers declined.

Lower credit limits on new cards likely reflect lenders’ efforts to manage affordability and mitigate risk exposure, even as originations skewed toward higher-risk borrowers.

Account-level delinquency increased to 12.7%. This, along with a heavier subprime mix, stable balances, and lower credit lines suggests that lenders have deliberately shifted their focus to riskier borrowers to fuel growth.

Consumers also managed their financial obligations by taking out additional credit. This was evident in the Q3 2025 TransUnion Consumer Pulse Report which found that nearly one third (30%) of surveyed consumers stated that they took an additional credit product to pay off an existing credit product during the quarter.

“While lenders seek growth, they are simultaneously tightening credit lines and deploying early interventions to protect portfolio quality,” said Hatea. “Dynamic credit line strategies and early interventions are key. Expanding pre-delinquency outreach and offering short-term hardship solutions can prevent roll-through into missed payments beyond three months, especially for subprime consumers carrying larger balances.”

Bank and Non-Bank Personal Loan Trends Diverged Further

Differences in growth and risk patterns between bank and non-bank lenders widened in Q3 2025. Banks expanded cautiously, focusing on larger, purposeful loans, while non-bank lenders grew through smaller, short-term loans aimed at higher-risk segments. These shifts reflect differing consumer targeting strategies of the two lender groups and increasing affordability pressures on higher-risk borrowers.

Bank-issued personal loan originations rose 7.6% YoY, with average new loan amounts up 9.3% YoY, reinforcing a trend toward larger loans for purposeful borrowing. However, the number of consumers carrying a personal loan balance fell 3.6% from the previous quarter, suggesting loan consolidation and/or repayment by borrowers. Account-level delinquency reached 28.1%, indicating repayment strain despite banks’ disciplined approach to growth and proactive measures to manage long-term defaults.

Non-bank personal loan originations rose 8.5% YoY, but average new personal loan amounts fell by the same margin of 8.5%. Average balances per account dropped 31.9% YoY, showing that these loans are increasingly used for short-term or emergency needs rather than financing larger purchases or debt consolidation. Risk indicators deteriorated sharply: account-level delinquencies surged upwards to 49.4%, highlighting rising financial stress among non-bank personal loan borrowers, compounded by a greater concentration of subprime consumers.

“Personal loan lenders need to balance access with sustainability,” said Hatea. “Stronger affordability checks and better early warning systems can prevent roll-through into deeper delinquency. Proactive engagement with at-risk consumers and tailored hardship solutions will help preserve portfolio health while maintaining access to credit.”

Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

 *Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

With an improving macroeconomic environment, driven by moderating inflation and associated interest rate cuts, continued shifts in the consumer credit market are to be expected. However, Hatea concluded: “Even though there are cautious signs of improvement, lenders and policymakers must remain agile when balancing growth with resilience. Refining segmentation strategies and enhancing early risk detection will be key to supporting consumer financial health and maintaining long-term portfolio stability.”
 

^[1] Trading Economics South Africa Unemployment Rate

^[2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).

TransUnion’s latest research into South Africa’s FinTech lending market reveals critical insights into borrower behaviour, loyalty and risk based on an analysis of 4.3 million South Africa consumers. The study highlights patterns that present both opportunities and challenges when navigating a rapidly digitising credit ecosystem.

South Africa’s FinTech sector is undergoing rapid transformation, signalling a major shift in how consumers will engage with credit in the next five years, and beyond. As digital adoption accelerates, lenders will need to adapt their approach to South African consumers if they’re to attract, retain and grow relationships with digitally engaged borrowers.

Emerging FinTechs are offering diverse solutions such as buy now, pay later (BNPL) loans with interest free payments, flexible financing for small and medium enterprises, point-of-sale credit and insurance coverage. Financial services are now more accessible than ever before. However, it’s essential that the lenders behind these solutions understand who is using them, how they engage with credit, and whether borrowers’ loyalty can help drive sustainable growth.

“As competition intensifies and regulatory frameworks evolve, lenders must go beyond product innovation and develop a deeper understanding of consumer behaviour,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Our study offers a data-driven lens into the FinTech borrower profile, helping lenders build loyalty, manage risk, and drive inclusion.”

TransUnion analysed South Africans who held at least one open FinTech credit obligation in Q4 2024, including long-term personal loans, short-term personal loans and credit cards, to learn more about the consumers driving growth in the sector. The study examined risk profiles, delinquency trends, product breadth, and loyalty patterns among FinTech borrowers. Further, the study compared those characteristics to similar-risk consumers using traditional lender products only (non-FinTech borrowers^[1]), providing a deeper understanding of growth opportunities for South Africa’s credit market.

Five Themes Shaping FinTech Lending Strategy

1.     FinTechs are not yet the main gateway to financial inclusion.

Despite South Africa’s high mobile penetration^[2], 69% of New-to-Credit consumers – those with no prior reported credit history – enter the market via retail accounts, with clothing accounts being the most common first product. FinTechs have an opportunity to reposition themselves as enablers of financial inclusion by partnering with retailers and mobile ecosystems to reach underserved segments.

2.     FinTech borrowers are concentrated in below prime risk tiers^[3].

While many FinTech borrowers have experience managing credit, 95% of FinTech borrowers with 0–1 month loans are in below prime risk tiers, compared to 29% for bank borrowers and 69% for non-bank lender borrowers. For 2–12 month loans, 94% of FinTech borrowers are below prime, in contrast to 58% for banks and 50% for non-banks. This highlights greater risk exposure among the FinTech borrower base and suggests that FinTech lenders could benefit from leveraging trended and alternative data to better predict repayment risk and reduce delinquency rates, particularly among below-prime borrowers.

3.     FinTech borrowers are not all underserved.

Among 0–1 month term borrowers, 44% of FinTech consumers already hold two or three credit products and 27% hold four or more, debunking the assumption that FinTech borrowers have limited access to credit. Additionally, more than 56% of FinTech personal loan borrowers hold credit products with non-FinTech lenders. These multi-lender relationships underscore the need for lenders to view borrowing patterns holistically and better understand the reasons why borrowers may be seeking credit from different lender types, in order to develop strategies for capturing more of their customers’ wallets.

4.     FinTech borrowers underperform on repayments.

While there are no material differences by lender type for longer-term loans, there are significant differences for 0-1 month loans. This is an important consideration as these shorter-term loans are more likely to be used by borrowers earlier in their credit journeys when they are potentially more financially vulnerable. After controlling for borrower risk score, delinquency rates (consumers 2+ months in arrears on a loan) were highest among FinTech borrowers: The consumer-level delinquencies were 74% for 0–1 month loans from FinTechs compared to lower rates for bank loans (53%) and non-bank lender loans (53%), underscoring the need for enhanced risk management strategies tailored to the FinTech segment.

5.     FinTech borrowers are loyal to FinTech lenders

TransUnion’s research provides compelling evidence of borrower loyalty within the FinTech lending ecosystem. Among consumers who originated a 0–1 month personal loan, 65% opened another 0–1 month loan within 12 months, and 93% of those chose a FinTech lender. More than one fifth (21%) of these borrowers progressed to a 2–12 month loan, with 80% remaining with FinTech providers.

Among consumers who started with a 2–12 month personal loan, 95% opened another 2–12 month loan, with 60% choosing a FinTech lender. In addition, 85% of these borrowers also opened a 0–1 month loan, and 38% did so with FinTech lenders. These patterns demonstrate a strong preference among borrowers to remain within the FinTech category, even as they take loans over longer time periods. This loyalty presents a strategic opportunity for FinTech lenders to deepen relationships through personalised engagement, targeted product offerings, and proactive risk management.

However, loyalty in product originations does not necessarily translate into repayment prioritisation. When consumers hold loans with both FinTech and non-FinTech lenders, they tend to prioritise repayments to traditional institutions. Among consumers with 2–12 term personal loans from both FinTech and non-FinTech non-bank lenders, delinquency measured as 1+ month in arrears was 33% for FinTechs, compared to 26% for non-FinTech non-bank lenders. Similarly, for those with loans from both FinTechs and banks, delinquency was 30% for FinTechs versus 28% for banks.

The takeaway for lenders is that while FinTech borrowers are loyal in terms of repeat borrowing, they may deprioritise FinTech repayments when under financial pressure. This highlights the need for FinTech lenders to strengthen their engagement strategies, build trust, and implement early intervention tools to improve repayment outcomes and long-term value.

“If lenders are to benefit from the anticipated growth in the FinTech lending market, it’s essential that they offer financial literacy and awareness education to help consumers understand how responsible credit use can support their financial goals. Once consumers have opened FinTech-issued products, lenders can activate lifestyle triggers to anticipate consumer progression so that they can deliver timely, relevant engagement to drive loyalty and long-term value. This can be further supported by deploying predelinquency models to identify early signs of consumer stress, and to initiate recovery efforts before risk escalates,” said Hatea.

^{[1] FinTech consumers were those with an open FinTech long-term personal loan, short-term personal loan, or credit card. Non-FinTech consumers were a control group with no FinTech obligations of any type in their history, who held a long-term personal loan, short term personal loan or credit card from a non-FinTech lender}

^{[2] 118,600,000 connections across 60,690,000 people https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2024-south-africa}

^{[3] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).}

These assumptions include that younger consumers do not value credit, they are disengaged from the credit market, are irresponsible with debt, have low appetite for new credit, lack loyalty to lenders, and struggle to meet payment obligations.

They could also partly explain South Africa’s low 13% credit card market penetration among both Millennials (aged 29 to 44) and Gen Z (aged 18 to 28). Furthermore, Gen Z consumers adopt credit cards and personal loans at half the rate that Millennials did at the same age, suggesting limited growth for lenders as these consumers age.

“Our research suggests systemic barriers to credit access in South Africa, rather than a lack of demand,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “It also highlights that lenders have opportunities to innovate in product design, onboarding and education to empower these consumers to manage everyday expenses and unexpected financial needs as they progress towards achieving key life milestones.”

To challenge perceptions about younger consumers, TransUnion South Africa conducted a focused study^[1] to test lenders’ perceptions, analysing participation, engagement and repayment behaviour among the country’s 4.3 million credit-active population aged 18 to 30.

Myth 1: Younger consumers don’t value credit

More than six in 10 (62%) younger consumers believe that access to credit is important to achieve their financial goals^[2], with 76% saying that credit can give them access to new opportunities that could lead to a better quality of life. Younger consumers’ favourable perception of credit exceeds that of older consumers, 57% of whom believe access is important, and 71% of whom believe that access to credit can unlock new opportunities. However, less than a quarter (24%) of young consumers view credit as a risk to prudent financial management.

“Younger consumers increasingly see credit as a way to achieve their financial goals – even more so than older consumers,” Hatea said. “With most disagreeing that applying for credit signals poor financial management, it’s clear that opportunities exist for segment-focused products supported by financial literacy initiatives.”

Myth 2: Younger consumers are disengaged and don’t participate in the credit market

Nearly four in 10 (39%) young consumers feel that they have sufficient access to credit and lending products, with 49% believing that they would be approved for a credit product if they needed one.

It’s worth noting that, over time, consumers’ choice of credit product shifts. Reviewing credit card originations across a six-year period showed similar trends across time: 2% of 18 year old credit active consumers hold a credit card, compared to 19% of 30 year olds. Their participation in secured credit products increases with age, reaching parity with the general population by 30 and reflecting life stage realities like income, affordability and asset ownership, rather than disengagement.

“These shifts show that young consumers are engaged with the credit market, particularly with unsecured products, but their participation evolves across product types and life stages,” Hatea said.

Myth 3: Younger consumers are irresponsible in leveraging debt

Credit utilisation and average balances are well aligned with risk-based access that improves with age. At age 21, 95% of consumers are classified as subprime, dropping to 74% by age 30, reflecting a maturing credit profile.

Despite limited access, younger borrowers demonstrate measured usage: the average credit card balance at age 21 is R11,000, rising to R24,000 by age 30, while utilisation among near-prime consumers increases from 58% to 78% over the same age range.

“These trends highlight responsible engagement with credit and clearly refute the myth that younger consumers overextend their credit exposure, or are reckless with credit,” Hatea said. “As young consumers gain access to larger loan amounts, they move into better risk categories, reflecting greater lender trust in recognition of responsible repayment behaviour.”

Myth 4: Younger consumers have a low appetite for credit, and lack loyalty to lenders

While one third (33%) of the general population intends to apply for new credit within the next year, this increases to 45% for Gen Z consumers. Additionally, 36% of these consumers inquired about new credit over the six years studies, compared to 28% of all consumers. However, only 3.4% of younger consumers return to their first lender for new credit – similar to the 3.6% average across all consumers.

“The data shows that younger consumers do indeed have appetite for credit, while revealing that South African consumers in general are not particularly loyal to their credit providers,” Hatea said. “To build loyalty and retain younger consumers, lenders should invest in early-stage experiences, personalised engagement, and relevant products that build lasting relationships.”

Myth 5: Younger consumes struggle to keep up with their payment obligations

Interestingly, younger consumers show significantly lower risk of delinquency at 30 days past due (DPD) in the first year after opening credit cards, although this rises as they get older: there was a 17% delinquency rate among near prime 18 to 22 year olds, while 30 year olds displayed a 24% delinquency rate.

However, for non-bank loans and bank loans, younger consumers (18 to 24 years old) show slightly higher delinquency rates than older consumers, although younger consumers, especially those aged 23 to 25, perform better than the industry average. This indicates that lender type influences delinquency outcomes, and that younger borrowers may respond differently to the structure, support, or perception of a lender’s credit.

“Younger consumers are effectively managing their loans when compared to industry averages across most products,” said Hatea. “They’re not broadly higher risk, but they may be more vulnerable in certain lending contexts, particularly non-bank personal loans, where product design, support, or affordability may not be well aligned to their needs. Higher delinquency rates on non-bank personal loans can be addressed through early default detection tools.

“By focusing on education, wallet growth, loyalty, alternative data to measure risk, and proactive risk management, lenders can support younger consumers and drive long-term, sustainable growth among these consumers and in the broader credit market,” she said. “Well-managed credit can also be a catalyst for broader economic growth in South Africa.”

^{[1] TransUnion South Africa conducted a focused study to test lenders’ perceptions of consumers aged 18 to 30, analysing participation, engagement and repayment behaviour among the country’s credit-active population in this age group. Data was studied across four time frames (September in 2018, 2022, 2023 and 2024), and included age, risk score, open products in wallet, credit lines, average balances by product and credit utilisation at commencement of the study, new products opened, line assignments and opening loan amounts for six months, and delinquency rates on newly opened products for 12 months. These were compared to overall market averages to evaluate gaps and opportunities.}

^{[2] According to TransUnion’s Q2 2025 Consumer Pulse Survey of 922 adults aged 18 or older, residing in South Africa conducted May 5–25, 2025 by TransUnion in partnership with third-party research provider, Dynata.}

South Africans are managing cost-of-living challenges with a blend of resilience and caution, according to TransUnion’s Q3 2025 Consumer Pulse Study*. The findings reveal that while inflation and affordability remain top concerns, many consumers are maintaining financial optimism while adopting protective behaviours, especially in credit usage and cyber security.

“South Africans are signalling confidence, but it’s a confidence shaped by awareness of risk,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion. “Consumers are balancing optimism with caution, adjusting spending habits, making informed credit decisions, and staying vigilant to fraud.”

Financial Confidence, but Rising Costs

Nearly seven in 10 (68%) of South Africans are optimistic about their household finances over the next year, while 75% expect their income to increase during that period. However, this optimism exists alongside strain: 36% of consumers say they expect to be unable to pay at least one of their current bills or loans in full. South Africans were concerned about the impacts of price increases, most particularly for groceries (82%), utilities (60%), fuel for cars (52%) and medical care (52%).

Younger Generations Shape Credit Behaviour

Generational differences continue to define financial habits. Nearly half of Gen Z (18-28 years old, 48%) and Millennials (29-44 years old, 43%) reported they’ll apply for new credit or refinance existing credit in the next year, compared to far lower intent among Gen X (45-60 years old) and Baby Boomers (61-79 years old).

Younger consumers are also driving the adoption of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services with 55% and 59% of Gen Z and Millennials saying they’ve used BNPL in the last 12 months compared to 39% and 19% of Gen X and Baby Boomers, respectively. Overall, 15% of South Africans who have used BNPL in the last year said they did so to afford a larger purchase (furniture, appliances or cars), highlighting both its appeal and potential risks in a high-inflation environment.

Cautious Credit Intent Amid Affordability Pressures

While the vast majority of South Africans (93%) say that access to credit and lending products is important to be able to achieve their financial goals, many remain hesitant to take on new financial products. In fact, 38% said they’ll apply for new credit or refinance existing credit in the next year. Credit awareness among South African consumers remains strong, with 70% agreeing that access to credit can unlock new opportunities and improve quality of life.

This sentiment aligns closely with TransUnion’s financial inclusion priorities, particularly as alternative data becomes a more prominent tool in assessing creditworthiness. The study reveals that consumers are increasingly aware of how credit affects their daily lives, which highlights the importance of expanding access to credit through inclusive data strategies, especially for those traditionally excluded from formal financial systems.

Among those planning to apply for new or refinance existing credit in the next year, unsecured credit products such as personal loans (30%), new credit cards (29%) and BNPL services (22%) are the most popular credit types they said they’ll apply for. In contrast, a lower percentage said they’ll apply for secured credit options like a new car loan or lease (18%) or home loans (16%), highlighting a cautious approach to larger, long-term borrowing.

Nearly Two-Thirds Report Being Targeted with Fraud

Fraud attempts and scams remained high in Q3: 59% of South Africans said they were targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last three months, the same percentage as Q2. Among those who said they were targeted, the most reported scheme was money/gift card scams (37%), with phishing (28%) and smishing (28%) also widespread.

With the persistence of attacks, consumers are proactively taking action. In fact, 54% of all surveyed said they changed passwords, 35% checked their credit report for any signs of fraudulent activity against their profile, and 27% modified their login to secure login without passwords options or added multi-factor authentication in the last 60 days in response to cyber security concerns.

“Fraudsters are evolving, and consumers are trying to keep pace,” said Hatea. “This is why education and accessible protection tools are so critical in building long-term trust in digital engagement.”

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.

* TransUnion’s online survey of 966 South African adults was conducted June 17– 31, 2025.

South Africans responded to a more favourable interest rate environment during Q2 2025, leading to increased new account originations across most consumer credit products, particularly for credit cards and vehicle finance. Home loan activity also showed signs of recovery, as consumers felt more confident in committing to longer-term credit obligations. Retail revolving loans were the exception, with origination volumes declining despite growth in balances.

These are some of the findings of TransUnion’s Q2 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report, which also found that South Africans were managing their credit better, as delinquencies improved across most consumer credit products during the quarter.

Credit Card Market Continued Upward Trajectory

Credit card originations increased by a robust 36.5% year-over-year (YoY), underscoring this product’s relevance as a flexible financial tool for consumers seeking convenience and/or liquidity in what remains a challenging economic environment. Millennials (born 1980 to 1994) drove this growth, with originations in this cohort making up 47.6% of all originations in the period.

Lenders seeking to expand market share continued to extend credit to consumers in higher-risk prime and below risk tiers^[1], with originations to subprime consumers increased by 49.2% YoY. They balanced this growth among higher-risk borrowers with smaller credit limits. The average credit limit on new credit cards decreased by 19.5% YoY during the quarter.

Delinquency trends showed mixed results. Credit card balance-level delinquency rose slightly to 18.1%, up 13 basis points (bps) YoY, indicating a marginal increase in overdue balances. In contrast, account-level delinquency rates declined by 32 bps YoY to 12.1%. This decline in account-level delinquency suggests that while some consumers accumulated larger balances, many were able to make payments to keep their accounts active.

“The latest credit cards trends reflect strategic credit use and disciplined repayment behaviour among a financially stretched borrower base,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “The combination of rising origination volumes and shrinking new credit lines suggests that lenders are working to balance growth with prudent risk management. Lenders may need to refine their segmentation strategies, enhance early warning systems, and tailor credit line management to sustain portfolio health while supporting customers’ financial needs.”

Vehicle Asset Finance Shows Continued Growth

Vehicle asset finance originations increased by 21.0% YoY in Q2 2025, and average new loan amounts increased by 3.5% while the number of active accounts increased by 2.1% YoY. Growth was mainly driven by Gen Z (aged 18 to 28) and Millennial (aged 29 to 44) consumers who accounted for 64.3% of originations.

Outstanding balances grew by 7.6% YoY, and average balances have increased by more than 30% over the last five years, reflecting both higher vehicle prices and a sustained trend toward longer loan terms, which slows loan balance paydown rates. Loan terms granted during Q2 2025 averaged 74 months, up from 73 months in Q2 2024 and 72 months in Q2 2023. Longer loan terms, while slowing balance paydown, result in lower monthly payment amounts, which help consumers manage monthly cash flow in a high-cost environment.

Younger consumers are beginning to look for more ways to enter the vehicle market, including taking advantage of more cost-effective imported vehicles. However, 65% of vehicle finance originations were made by repeat buyers during Q2 2025, suggesting that access to vehicle finance remains limited for new entrants. At the same time, lenders need to be mindful of rising risk levels: in the second quarter of 2025, 44% of new-to-vehicle finance consumers fell into the subprime risk tier. These trends highlight the need for lenders to design credit products that support younger buyers, while ensuring responsible credit practices are upheld.

Account-level delinquencies for vehicle asset finance improved by 24 bps YoY to 5.1%, demonstrating that repayment behaviour for this product remained relatively stable, and that the overall risk profile of this portfolio is improving.

“For vehicle finance lenders, the rise in originations alongside modest growth in loan amounts suggests an opportunity to support demand while maintaining portfolio discipline,” said Hatea. “The improvement in delinquency rates is encouraging, but ongoing monitoring will be essential as economic recovery remains uneven. Vehicle finance lenders may benefit from refining pricing models, reassessing vehicle segmentation strategies, and balancing growth with prudent risk management.”

Home Loan Market Responds Positively to Eased Interest Rates

Lower interest rates, moderating inflation and improved real wage growth led to stronger consumer sentiment, giving lenders an opportunity to re-engage with consumers seeking home loans. New home loan account originations increased by 6.8% YoY during Q2 2025, showing early signs of recovery after declines in growth over previous quarters.

Favourable interest rate conditions and enhanced credit access drove broader access to home ownership this quarter, with 51% of home loans granted to individuals taking a home loan for the first time — the highest proportion in over five years. Among these, 56% were Millennials and 24% were Gen Z.

Delinquency trends showed mild deterioration, with the account-level delinquency rate increased by 29 bps to 7.5%. These movements suggest that while the market is stabilising, repayment stress remains a concern.

“These trends indicate a home loan market that is stabilising, but not without risk,” said Hatea. “For home loan lenders, the uptick in originations presents an opportunity to re-engage with the market, but rising delinquency rates underscore the need for vigilance. Portfolio strategies may need to shift toward enhanced consumer profile assessments, proactive risk monitoring, and targeted engagement with borrowers showing early signs of strain. As the market navigates this transitional phase, balancing growth with resilience will be key.”

 Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

 *Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

^[1] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).

Encouragingly, 31% of consumers are paying down debt faster, 24% are boosting emergency savings, and 37% plan to increase their retirement or investment contributions. These trends suggest that South Africans are not only reacting to pressure, but they are also taking proactive steps to protect their financial futures.

Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa shares some tips and tricks to help you manage debt and interest rates more effectively in 2025:

1. Pay Off High-Interest Debt First

The study highlights that more consumers are accelerating debt repayment and for good reason. Credit cards and personal loans often carry the highest interest rates when looking at consumers with multiple products in their wallet.

“In a high-interest environment, every rand you pay off today saves you from paying more interest tomorrow,” says Hatea

Tip: List your debts and focus on paying off the ones with the highest rates first, while keeping up with minimum payments on the rest.

2. Be Strategic About Borrowing

Access to credit remains crucial. 92% of South Africans believe it’s important for achieving their goals. Yet only 36% intend to apply for credit in the next year, reflecting caution amid high borrowing costs and income uncertainty.

If you do borrow, make it purposeful. The study found that demand is strongest for credit cards (30%), personal loans (28%), and Buy Now, Pay Later services (25%) but remember, these are all unsecured products that can quickly become costly if not managed well.

Tip: Compare interest rates, fees, and repayment terms before taking on new credit. Avoid unnecessary borrowing for short-term wants when rates are high or if you aren’t sure you’ll be able to make the necessary repayments.

3. Build a Safety Net, Even Small Steps Count

Nearly one in four consumers (24%) increased contributions to emergency savings or stokvels in Q2. In addition, 37% plan to grow their retirement or investment savings in the coming months.

Tip: Start with a modest, consistent contribution to an emergency fund, even R200 a month can create a buffer that reduces reliance on credit when life throws curveballs.

4. Strengthen Your Financial Awareness

The study shows that 70% of South Africans check their credit reports at least quarterly, with Gen Z and Millennials leading the way. Those who actively monitor their credit tend to feel more confident and have a better understanding of their overall financial commitments.

Tip: Check your credit report regularly, track your score, and make sure all information is accurate. Awareness is power when it comes to negotiating better credit terms.

5. Protect Yourself Against Digital Fraud

Fraud remains a real risk with 58% of South Africans saying they were targeted by scams in Q2, and 13% fell victim. Younger generations are more likely to adopt safeguards like multi-factor authentication, but 21% of consumers took no action at all.

Tip: Use strong, unique passwords, enable two-factor authentication, and monitor your accounts for unusual activity. Protecting your identity is just as important as protecting your money.

The Bottom Line

The TransUnion Consumer Pulse Study shows that while many households remain under pressure, South Africans are becoming more selective in how they spend, strategic in how they borrow, and vigilant in how they protect themselves.

“Resilience comes from balance: focus on responsible spending and borrowing, reduce costly or unsustainable debt, and build savings to protect against future shocks,” Ayesha concludes.

By taking small, deliberate steps today, households can better manage debt and interest rate uncertainty and build financial stability for tomorrow.

South African consumers are responding to ongoing financial pressures with increasing intent and vigilance. While inflation, high interest rates and job market uncertainty continue to weigh on household budgets, the latest TransUnion Consumer Pulse Study for Q2 2025* reveals a population adjusting not just defensively, but proactively. From rethinking spending and saving to becoming more discerning about credit and fraud, South Africans are adopting behaviours that suggest a shift toward long-term financial resilience, especially among younger generations.

“South Africans are showing resilience with purpose,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion. “They’re not simply reacting to pressure, they’re taking charge, rebalancing their finances and protecting their future.”

Mixed Incomes, Bold Adjustments

While there are some positive signs, many households are still experiencing fluctuations in their income. In the second quarter, 21% of consumers said their household income had decreased, while 38% reported an increase. A majority of respondents (75%) are hopeful that their earnings will increase in the next year. However, this confidence exists alongside financial challenges, with nearly 39% of consumers reporting that they expect they might miss at least one bill or loan payment in the near future.

This financial pressure is driving noticeable changes in how people manage their money. More than half of consumers (54%) trimmed back on non-essential expenses like dining out, entertainment and travel. Many are also taking steps to strengthen their financial security; 31% paid down debt faster, 24% put more into emergency savings or stokvels and 37% planned to increase their retirement or investment savings.

Generational Differences Define the Shift

While overall behaviours are trending positive, the evolution is not uniform across age groups. Younger consumers, particularly Gen Z (ages 18-28) and Millennials (29-44) are emerging as drivers of this transformation. They are more likely to apply for credit, monitor their credit reports frequently and adopt security tools like multi-factor authentication.

Forty-five percent of Gen Z respondents and 39% of Millennials indicated they plan to apply for or refinance credit in the next year, compared to just 27% of Gen X (45-60) and 15% of Baby Boomers (61+). They are also the most engaged in monitoring their credit monthly and believe that access to alternative data, such as rental or Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) payment histories, would improve their credit scores.

“Younger South Africans are embracing financial tools with growing confidence,” Hatea added. “They’re more comfortable with digital platforms, increasingly aware of how their financial choices affect their long-term goals, and, as a result, are more proactive about managing their credit.”

Cautious Credit Intent Amid Access Concerns

While 92% of consumers believe access to credit is important to achieving their financial goals, only 36% intend to apply for credit in the coming year, a figure that has remained stable since Q1. This cautious demand reflects continued uncertainty around employment, income and affordability.

Consumers favour unsecured lending, with credit cards (30%), personal loans (28%) and BNPL services (25%) attracting the most interest. Interest in secured lending remains comparatively low, with only 22% planning to apply for vehicle finance and 19% expressing interest in home loans.

Still, barriers remain. Nearly half (48%) of consumers said they had considered applying for credit but ultimately decided not to. The main reasons were income/ employment status (30%), high borrowing costs (29%) and concerns about their credit history (27%). Overall, 45% of consumers believed they would be approved if they applied for credit. While this figure reflects general sentiment, optimism tends to be higher among those who actively monitor their credit, suggesting a link between financial awareness and confidence.

Digital Fraud on the Rise, but So Is Awareness

As digital engagement grows, so does the threat of fraud. In Q2 2025, 58% of South Africans reported being targeted by fraud schemes, a decrease from the previous quarter (61%) with 13% confirming they had fallen victim. The most common scams included gift card or money transfer scams (33%), phishing (31%), smishing (30%) and third-party seller scams (28%).

Consumers are responding with heightened vigilance in response to cyber security concerns. A majority (59%) changed their passwords, 39% checked their credit reports and 25% added multi-factor authentication. Gen Z and Millennials were the most likely to take protective action, a likely result of both their greater exposure to digital platforms and higher awareness of evolving scam tactics. Alarmingly, 21% of consumers said they took no action at all, often citing uncertainty about what to do. This highlights the ongoing need for stronger cybersecurity and fraud education, and accessible protection tools.

“Consumers are trying to keep pace, but the threat landscape is evolving quickly,” said Hatea. “What we need now is a national conversation, one that gives all South Africans the knowledge and resources to protect their identities in a digital-first world.”

A Financial Turning Point

The Q2 2025 Consumer Pulse Study reveals a country making deliberate financial choices in the face of uncertainty. South Africans are shifting from survival mode to a more balanced, future-focused financial mindset. While challenges remain, the direction is clear; consumers are becoming more selective in how they spend, more strategic in how they borrow and more vigilant in how they protect themselves.

“At TransUnion, we believe these shifts represent not just resilience, but growth,” concluded Hatea. “South Africans are taking ownership of their financial journeys and in doing so, they’re laying the groundwork for lasting stability and inclusion.”

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.

^{* This online survey of 922 adults was conducted May 5–25, 2025}

According to TransUnion’s (NYSE:TRU) Q1 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report, the growth in originations of new credit cards, at 30.7% year-over-year (YoY), far outstripped growth for other consumer credit products during the first quarter of the year.

Strong growth in credit cards was driven, in part, by lenders extending cards to more below prime^[1] borrowers than they did one year ago – up 33.1% YoY. Subprime and near prime borrowers accounted for 69.3% of credit card originations, up from 64.3% one year earlier. At the same time, lenders looked to actively manage the increased risk profile of borrowers by limiting the average credit limit on new credit cards – down 13.1% YoY.

Growth is likely to remain buoyant in the South African credit card market, with 33% of respondents to TransUnion’s recent Q1 2024 Consumer Pulse Survey saying that they planned to apply for a new credit card in the next 12 months.

Credit card average account balances increased by 7.1% YoY, although lenders’ default concerns may have been eased by the 20-basis point (bps) decrease in account-level delinquencies* over the same period, standing at 12.3% in Q1 2025.

“While inflation has dropped to the low end of the South African Reserve Bank’s target range during Q1 at close to 3%, South Africans are still experiencing financial pressures from prior price increases, turning to credit to help them make ends meet,” says Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion. “Despite these strains, consumers have increasingly prioritised keeping their credit cards in good standing, as they likely want to ensure access to the ongoing liquidity that this credit product provides.”

Vehicle loans grew at double-digit rate

The vehicle loans market continued to show encouraging signs of continued growth, as origination volumes increased by 11.6% YoY in Q1 2025. The average value of new loans also rose by 3.0% over the same period.

The highest growth rate continued to be among Gen Z^[2] consumers, up 28.5% YoY. Within the Gen Z cohort, 62% of new vehicle loans were opened by consumers in the oldest subgroup in this generation, aged 26 to 29 years. This trend suggests that older Gen Z consumers are becoming increasingly active in the vehicle finance market, likely as they reach key life stages such as career stability and household formation. While this group is not necessarily New-to-Credit, their growing share of originations highlights a valuable opportunity for lenders to engage younger, upwardly mobile consumers.

In contrast, the share of vehicle loans declined across all other generations, with the exception of Gen X, where volumes remained relatively stable. This reinforces the importance of targeting older Gen Z consumers as a key growth segment in the vehicle finance space.

With a 0.25% repo rate cut announced by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) in January followed by another in May, demand for vehicle loans is likely to remain buoyant, with more than one fifth (22%) of South Africans surveyed in the TransUnion Q1 Consumer Pulse Survey indicating that they intend to take out a new car loan or lease in the next 12 months.

“With vehicle ownership is a priority due to limited public transport offerings, buying a vehicle is often a first step into secured credit for young professionals,” said Hatea. “Vehicle finance often requires relatively small deposits, and flexible financing options can be negotiated to make monthly repayments more affordable. Borrowers don’t need as extensive a credit history to purchase a vehicle as they do to buy a home. Successfully managing a vehicle loan demonstrates financial responsibility, which can strengthen future home loan applications.”

Personal loans leveraged for meeting monthly expenses

During the first quarter of the year, consumers also increasingly turned to personal loans as strategic tools to achieve their financial objectives, with originations growing for both bank and non-bank personal loan lenders – up 2.7% and 11.5% YoY, respectively. Demand for personal loans will likely continue, with 35% of surveyed South Africans saying that they intend to apply for a personal loan in the next 12 months.

However, non-bank lenders may yet have to refocus their risk management strategies in the coming months as more than two in five (41.3%) of South Africans who hold one of these loans – 83.9% of whom are below prime borrowers – being three months or more in arrears during Q1 2025. This is a 520-basis point (bps) YoY increase and is the highest delinquency rate for this product since the previous high of 39.1% in Q2 2021.

The delinquency rate among non-bank personal loans was 15 percentage points higher than delinquencies on bank personal loans, where below prime borrowers comprise 71.8% of the bank personal loans book.

“South Africans are increasingly turning to low-value personal loans with shorter repayment terms to manage their monthly expenses. However, persistently high delinquency rates — particularly among non-bank personal loans — indicate that many consumers are under significant financial pressure and struggling to meet their loan commitments,” says Hatea. “As lenders respond to growing demand for this type of credit, it’s essential they align their growth strategies with prudent risk management to ensure long-term sustainability.”

Home loans remain under pressure

Home loans were the only sector to experience a decline in originations in Q1 2025, down 10.8% YoY. Although originations fell across all risk tiers, loans to prime and above consumers saw a particularly sharp decline, down 21.1% YoY. This continues the downward trend in home loan growth observed since Q1 2020, with exception of a moderate YoY increase between Q1 2022 and Q1 2023.

“The fact that even prime consumers are pulling back from the housing market is a clear signal that affordability remains a significant barrier,” said Hatea. “This trend has implications not only for the credit market, but also for broader economic activity tied to home ownership and property development.”

As the housing finance sector continues to soften, lenders may need to reassess their strategies. This includes rethinking product design and pricing, as well as how they connect with younger consumers and first-time buyers, in order to reignite demand in a segment that has traditionally served as a foundation of secured lending.

 Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

 *Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

^{[1] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).}

^{[2] TransUnion age distribution: Gen Z (Born 1995 – 2010); Millennials (Born 1980-1994); Gen X (Born 1965-1979); Baby Boomers (Born 1946-1964}

South African consumers continue to adapt to a fluctuating economic environment, with TransUnion’s Q1 2025 Consumer Pulse study^[1] revealing key trends in household financial management, credit activity and vehicle financing. Amid ongoing financial pressures, a significant increase in intended hybrid vehicle financing highlights evolving consumer preferences.

“Despite the challenges posed by inflation and economic uncertainty, South Africans continue to show resilience in managing their finances,” said Ayesha Hatea, Director of Research and Consulting at TransUnion. “We are seeing notable shifts toward more purposeful financial planning, credit management and strategic spending. While economic pressures remain, consumers are finding ways to balance credit usage, savings, and debt repayments more effectively.”

Economic Concerns and Credit Usage Trends

The report highlights consumers’ ongoing financial concerns, with 42% of respondents stating that their household income is not keeping up with inflation, despite inflation being at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s target range^[2]. These ongoing concerns could be because 40% of consumers said their income stayed the same in the past three months, while 22% reported it decreased.

“With more than six in ten South Africans reporting no increase in their income, it’s clear to see why consumers are trying to find new ways to manage their financial commitments, including taking on more credit, and different types of credit, for key purchases,” said Hatea.

The survey data reveals that 37% of respondents plan to apply for new or refinance existing credit within the next year, with 52% of all those surveyed saying they’ve used Buy Now, Pay Later services in the past 12 months.

Amid ongoing concerns about a recession, consumers indicated that they are actively taking steps to prepare. Among those who said they think South Africa is currently in a recession or will be in one by the end of Q1, the most respondents (59%) said they’re preparing for a possible recession by reducing spending followed by 58% building up their savings and 35% prioritising paying down debt.

Debt Repayments and Savings Trends

The data also reveals shifting trends in debt repayments and savings. A worrying trend is that 38% of respondents in Q1 2025 said they’ll be unable to pay at least one of their current bills and loans in full, up from 35% in Q4 2024.

Among those who said they’ll be unable to pay, 34% reported they plan on paying partial amounts they can afford but not the whole balance, while 25% said they’ll dip into their savings to help pay their current bills and loans. A further 20% of consumers aim to borrow money from friends or family members to meet their payment commitments. Additionally, 35% of those surveyed are looking to take on temporary or gig work.

“Managing debt effectively while maintaining savings is a key challenge for many South Africans,” said Hatea. “Consumers who are struggling to meet their payment commitments should engage with their lenders to potentially renegotiate current payment terms. Lenders do not want consumers to default on their debts, and they are often willing to discuss available options with the intention of creating prudent, sustainable financial solutions.”

Hybrid Vehicle Financing Expected to Increase

Of particular interest in the Q1 2025 study is the finding that 36% of consumers planning a new vehicle loan or lease within the next year would consider hybrid vehicles, while 25% would consider an electric vehicle. In comparison, 32% preferred traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, making hybrid cars the top consideration for new vehicle loans or leases among those surveyed.

The latest TransUnion Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) reflects this trend, with the anticipated introduction of more affordable EVs priced under R1 million expected to accelerate their adoption in 2025, thanks to broadening consumer options in the hybrid and EV market.

“This trend highlights how consumers are adapting to broader economic and environmental changes,” said Hatea. “Hybrid vehicles are becoming more accessible, and their appeal extends beyond cost savings to include long-term benefits such as reduced environmental impact and lower running costs. As this market continues to evolve, we anticipate sustained growth in consumer interest and adoption.”

Fraud Concerns

The study highlights that nearly one in three respondents (31%) check their credit reports monthly, with 54% of those who said they monitor their credit doing so to try and improve their credit score. This indicates an awareness of the importance of credit health management.

A smaller 34% of credit monitoring consumers said they check their credit reports to protect against fraudulent activity. More than half (51%) of all those surveyed reported being targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last three months but not falling victim, emphasising the importance of heightened security awareness.

Among the most common fraud schemes reported by those who said they were targeted were money/ gift card scam (33%), smishing (33%), phishing (32%) and third-party seller scams on legitimate online retail websites (31%), emphasising the urgency for consumers to remain vigilant.

“With digital transactions and online banking becoming standard, financial institutions are urged to implement stronger fraud prevention measures, while consumers are encouraged to monitor their credit activity and adopt safer financial practices,” said Hatea.

Adapting to Improve Credit Health

In response to ongoing financial pressures, South African consumers are making strategic adjustments to their household budgets. In the past three months, 52% said they have cut back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel and entertainment, with 43% of them reporting scaling back on large purchases like furniture, appliances and cars. This cautious approach highlights a continued emphasis on financial resilience and long-term stability.

“Our findings show that South Africans are taking a more proactive approach to managing their finances amid economic uncertainty,” said Hatea. “While financial pressures persist, consumers are prioritising essential spending, reducing discretionary expenses, and making thoughtful financial decisions to maintain stability. Providing them with the right tools, education and financial products will be crucial in supporting their financial well-being in the months ahead.”

The Reserve Bank’s decision to reduce the repo rate by 0.25% to 7.5% this January, with no change in March^[3], aims to support economic growth and ease borrowing costs for consumers. This adjustment, coupled with improved inflation expectations, is expected to provide further relief to consumers and stimulate economic activity.

As economic conditions evolve, businesses, financial institutions, and policymakers will need to align with these shifting behaviours, offering solutions that promote financial inclusion, long-term stability, and economic growth.

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.

^{[1] Q1 2025 South African Consumer Pulse Study was a survey of 950 South African adults from Feb. 10 to 24, 2025.}

^{[2] Inflation Targeting Framework}

^{[3]: repo rate by 0.25% in January to 7.5%: Current Market Rates}