Mike Anderson, Founder & CEO of NSBC Africa launched Access to Finance™ at the opening of The Business Show: Africa 2026 at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg, where thousands of entrepreneurs, business owners, executives, funders, leading brands and business decision makers are gathering for two days of business growth and opportunity.

Access to Finance™ forms part of NSBC Africa’s broader national business growth ecosystem and its longstanding mission to help entrepreneurs and SMEs access the opportunities, resources, funding and connections they need to build sustainable and successful businesses.

At its core, the initiative seeks to address one of the most persistent challenges facing South African entrepreneurs and growing businesses: accessing the right finance, at the right stage, from the right funding provider. For many SMEs, the funding landscape can be complex and difficult to navigate. Businesses may not know whether they are funding-ready, what type of finance best suits their needs or which funding providers are most relevant to their circumstances.

FUNDING. FAST. SIMPLE.

Through a structured digital journey, Access to Finance™ helps SMEs better understand their funding requirements and, where qualifying criteria are met, connects them with participating funders whose solutions are aligned to their business and funding needs. The goal is to create a simpler pathway to business finance, while supporting greater participation by qualified SMEs within the broader finance ecosystem.

Rather than simply providing businesses with a list of funders, Access to Finance™ is designed to improve alignment between SME funding needs and appropriate funding opportunities, helping entrepreneurs take a more informed and targeted approach to accessing finance.

TransUnion is the exclusive Credit Bureau Partner to Access to Finance™, working alongside NSBC Africa in support of the shared vision of strengthening SME participation within South Africa’s finance ecosystem.

CREATING GREATER VISIBILITY AND CONNECTIVITY

A central part of the Access to Finance™ vision is improving the connection between South African SMEs and the organisations that finance business growth. By helping businesses better understand their readiness for finance, before engaging participating funders, the initiative aims to create a more efficient journey for both SMEs and funding providers.

Speaking at the official opening of The Business Show: Africa and the launch of Access to Finance™, Lee Naik, CEO & Regional President of TransUnion Africa, addressed the importance of strengthening the environment in which South African SMEs can better understand their financial position, become more visible within the finance ecosystem and connect with appropriate opportunities for growth.

“Small businesses are one of South Africa’s most important engines of growth and job creation, yet too many still struggle to access the funding they need to start, sustain and scale their operations.  At TransUnion Africa, we see data visibility and access to information as powerful enablers of financial inclusion and business growth.  By helping businesses establish a stronger, more transparent financial profiles, we can support lenders in making more informed decisions and expand access to credit for viable enterprises,” says Naik.

A NEW ERA OF ACCESS TO FINANCE

According to Anderson, improving the connection between SMEs and appropriate finance has the potential to unlock significant business growth.  “South Africa does not lack entrepreneurial ambition. What many businesses lack is a simpler, more effective way to navigate the funding landscape and connect with the right finance opportunities.

Access to Finance™ has been created to help change that. We want to make the journey smarter, simpler and more connected, helping funding-ready SMEs get closer to the finance they need to grow. When more viable businesses can access appropriate funding, they can invest, expand, create jobs and build stronger, more sustainable businesses. That is the bigger vision behind Access to Finance™.”

CREATED AND POWERED BY NSBC AFRICA

Access to Finance™ is created and powered by NSBC Africa, a non-profit organisation that has championed entrepreneurship and SME growth for more than 18 years. Through its national ecosystem of initiatives, platforms, partnerships and events, NSBC Africa works to connect entrepreneurs and small businesses with the opportunities, knowledge, solutions, funding and connections they need to build sustainable and successful businesses.

Adds Naik, “We are proud to partner with NSBC Africa on Access to Finance™ and see this as an important platform for connecting entrepreneurs with funding opportunities and help them realise their growth potential.”

The initiative represents an important next step in that mission, bringing together NSBC Africa’s SME ecosystem, technology, partnerships and funding relationships to create a smarter and more connected pathway between entrepreneurs seeking finance and participating funding providers.

The vision is clear: help more SMEs become finance-ready, connect with relevant funding opportunities and take the meaningful steps towards sustainable business growth.

Yolande joins TransUnion with more than 20 years of pan-African leadership experience across regulated, high-growth and transformation-driven environments. She most recently served as Vice President and Head of HR Africa at Cipla Pharmaceuticals, where she led the people strategy across multiple markets, driving organisational transformation, strengthening succession planning and regional integration initiatives.

Her previous leadership roles at BetKing, AB InBev and SABMiller Africa saw her play a pivotal role in shaping workforce strategies, building talent pipelines and supporting business expansion, including greenfield operations and market entry initiatives. Known for her ability to align people strategies with broader business priorities, she has helped organisations achieve ‘Top Employer’ and ‘Great Place to Work’ certifications.

“Yolande’s appointment comes at an important time as we continue to strengthen our organisation to deliver on our vision for Africa,” said Lee Naik, regional president and chief executive officer of TransUnion Africa.

“Her deep experience across diverse markets, combined with her proven ability to translate strategy into measurable outcomes, will be instrumental as we scale our talent, capabilities and culture across both our Africa operations and Global Capability Centre. As we expand access to information and unlock greater economic opportunity, our people remain at the heart of our success and central to delivering on our commitment.”

“We are excited to welcome Yolande to TransUnion. Her proven track record of building high-performing teams and leading transformation across Africa will be invaluable as we continue to grow our talent and capabilities across both GCCA and TransUnion Africa. I look forward to partnering with her to further strengthen our people-first culture,” said Shobana Maikoo, Head of Global Capability Centre Africa.

“I am honoured to join TransUnion at such a pivotal time in its journey across Africa,” said Yolande Chirwa. “TransUnion’s purpose of expanding access to information and insights to create economic opportunity resonates deeply with me. I look forward to partnering with our leadership teams to strengthen organisational capability, grow and develop our talent, and continue to build an inclusive, high-performance culture that enables our people and our business to thrive. Together, we will continue to position TransUnion as an employer of choice and a catalyst for sustainable growth across the region.”

Yolande will prioritise enabling effective change and transformation leadership across the business, ensuring teams are equipped to navigate an evolving and increasing digital landscape. In addition, Yolande will focus on optimising total rewards and the employee value proposition to attract and retain top talent, while elevating the HR function as a strategic business partner, leveraging data-driven insights to align people strategy with commercial objectives. Through this, she will play a critical role in building a resilient, agile and future-ready workforce positioned to support TransUnion Africa’s next phase of growth.

Yolande holds a Master’s degree in Organisational Development and Leadership and is widely regarded for her strategic, empathetic and commercially astute approach to leadership.

South African consumers are facing sustained financial strain, with nearly four in ten (39%) expecting to miss at least one bill or loan repayment, according to TransUnion’s Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study (CPS). Persistently high inflation continues to reshape how households spend, borrow and save, driving more cautious financial behaviour and softer optimism.

The findings point to a consumer environment marked less by recovery and more by ongoing adjustment. While many households remain financially active, their ability to absorb additional pressure is narrowing, with affordability constraints increasingly shaping everyday decisions.

“Consumers are still managing, but the margin for error is shrinking,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Even modest increases in essential costs are forcing difficult trade-offs, which is reflected in lower confidence and more cautious credit behaviour.”

Financial Pressure Persists as Optimism Declines

Household finances remain under pressure, with mixed signals pointing to continued strain. In Q2 2026, 43% of South Africans said their household finances were better than planned, down slightly from 44% in Q2 2025. At the same time, 40% said their finances were worse than planned, pointing to persistent pressure rather than a clear recovery trend.

Forward-looking sentiment softened more noticeably. Financial optimism declined to 66%, down from 71% in Q2 2025, while pessimism increased to 19% from 15%. Income expectations also weakened, with 70% of consumers expecting their household income to increase over the next 12 months, compared to 75% a year ago.

A key driver of this shift is the widening gap between income growth and rising living costs. Only 37% of consumers believed their income was keeping up with inflation, while 41% disagreed. Inflation for everyday goods, including groceries and fuel, remained the dominant household concern, ranking among the top three worries for 79% of respondents.

This imbalance is increasingly affecting liquidity, which underscores the extent to which cost pressure continues to affect monthly cash flow and raise the risk of missed payments.

“Inflation remains the single biggest pressure point for households. Even where incomes are rising, essential costs quickly absorb that relief. This makes budgeting discipline and financial awareness more important, because households need to know where they can adjust when pressure rises,” said Hatea.

Households Cut Discretionary Spend to Stay Afloat

In response, South Africans are making practical adjustments to their household budgets. More than half of consumers (53%) said they had cut back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel, and entertainment over the past three months. A further 28% cancelled subscriptions or memberships, while 24% cancelled or reduced digital services such as wireless, cable TV, or internet.

Debt and savings behaviour also reflect caution. Around 32% of consumers said they had paid down debt faster, 27% saved more in an emergency fund or stokvel, and 20% saved more for retirement. At the same time, 14% cut back on retirement savings, 14% increased their use of available credit, and 13% used their retirement savings, signalling that financial resilience is uneven and for some, deteriorating.

Looking ahead, consumers expect essential categories to remain under pressure. Over the next three months, 37% expect their spending on bills and loans to increase, while 33% expect higher spending on medical care and services. Around 36% expect to increase contributions to retirement funds or investments, although 16% expect to decrease spending in that category.

“These findings show how carefully households are trying to manage trade-offs. Some consumers are still building buffers and paying down debt, while others are drawing on savings or credit to get through the month. That is why the broader picture is one of sustained financial adjustment rather than simple improvement,” said Hatea.

Consumers Want Credit but Few Are Willing to Apply

Credit remains a critical financial tool, but engagement is becoming more selective. The study found that 92% of South Africans view access to credit and lending products as important to achieving their financial goals, unchanged from a year ago. Perceptions of access improved, with 45% believing they have sufficient access to credit, up from 38% in Q2 2025. Around half (50%) of consumers believe they would be approved if they applied.

However, this confidence is not translating into increased demand. Only 36% plan to apply for new credit or refinance existing credit in the next 12 months, broadly unchanged year-over-year (YoY). Among those who considered applying for credit or refinancing, 45% ultimately abandoned their plans.

Cost remains the largest barrier, cited by 30% of consumers who abandoned applications. Credit history was cited by 23%, while 22% pointed to income or employment status. This suggests that while consumers still recognise the importance of credit, many remain cautious about taking on new commitments.

“Credit demand has not disappeared, but consumers are becoming more selective about the obligations they take on. For many households, access is not only about whether credit is available. It is also about whether the cost, repayment terms and approval process feel manageable,” said Hatea.

Where consumers do plan to apply, demand is shifting toward shorter-term and more flexible products. Among those planning new credit or refinancing activity, 34% intend to apply for a new personal loan, up from the previous quarter, while 29% plan to apply for a new credit card. A further 27% plan to use buy now, pay later services.

Fraud Exposure Rising as Digital Use Expands

Digital channels are also playing an increasingly important role in financial participation. Of the 30% who said they used digital banking services, around 46% reported using a digital bank, 56% used buy now, pay later services, and 23% engaged with digital or FinTech providers. This points to continued demand for speed and convenience, alongside the need for clear, responsible credit information.

As digital financial activity grows, identity protection remains an important concern. Around 56% of consumers reported being targeted by online, email, phone call, or text message fraud attempts in the past three months.

Among those targeted, the most common schemes were vishing (34%), smishing (33%), and phishing (31%). The study also found that 26% of consumers had been notified in the past three months that details about their identity or online accounts had been compromised in a data breach.

Consumers are taking some protective steps. In the past 60 days, 53% changed passwords because of cybersecurity concerns, 37% checked their credit reports, and 12% purchased internet security, anti-virus, or anti-malware protection. Yet uncertainty remains a barrier. Among consumers who took no action despite cybersecurity concerns, 56% said they were overwhelmed by what to do.

“As digital financial participation increases, security becomes a core part of financial confidence. Consumers need clear, practical guidance on how to protect their information and respond effectively when risks arise,” said Hatea.

Consumers Seek Control Amid Ongoing Financial Strain

Despite ongoing challenges, South African consumers remain financially engaged and active. Around 34% monitor their credit reports monthly, 13% weekly, and 6% daily. More than half (52%) believe their credit score would improve if businesses used information not found on standard credit reports, such as rental payments, short-term loan history, and buy now, pay later loans.

This reflects a broader shift toward financial visibility, as consumers look for tools and information to better manage their financial position in an uncertain environment.

The Q2 2026 Consumer Pulse Study highlights a market that is resilient but increasingly constrained. Households are adjusting spending, managing debt carefully, and seeking greater control, but persistent cost pressures are testing their capacity to absorb shocks.

“Consumers are doing their best to stay in control in a difficult environment,” Hatea concluded. “For lenders and financial service providers, the opportunity lies in supporting that effort, through transparent pricing, responsible access to credit, and tools that help consumers anticipate and manage financial stress before it escalates.”.

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.

South African consumers are reshaping how they access and use credit as affordability pressures persist, according to TransUnion’s Q1 2026 South Africa Industry Insights Report. The report’s findings show that credit demand remained resilient, but diverging risk dynamics are increasingly evident across products and providers. Consumers are relying more heavily on existing credit facilities while also shifting toward more accessible lending options that are typically employed by higher risk borrowers to manage short-term liquidity needs.

Diverging Trends in Bank and Non-Bank Personal Loans

Personal loan markets continued to show distinctly different trajectories during the quarter. Bank personal loan originations recorded modest growth of 2.5% YoY, while the number of active accounts increased by 1.4% over the same period. Looking below this headline growth reveals a shift in lending mix by borrower risk profiles, with below-prime originations rising by 5.0% while prime and above segments declined by 3.8%. Gen Z participation also increased significantly, with originations among this segment rising 21% YoY, bringing their share to 23% (up from 19.5% in Q1 2025) of total bank personal loan originations.

Credit performance improved in the bank personal loan segment, as account-level delinquencies (3+ months in arrears, or MIA) decreased by 256 basis points to 26.7%. This reflects tighter underwriting, portfolio stabilisation, and improved repayment behaviour following earlier periods of financial stress.

In contrast, non-bank personal loans continued to expand rapidly. Originations grew by 19.0% YoY, while active accounts increased by 27.6%. This growth was driven largely by younger consumers, with Gen Z accounting for 53% of originations in the quarter.

At the same time, lending dynamics for non-bank personal loans have evolved. Declining average loan sizes and balances point to a shift toward smaller value and more frequent borrowing patterns. This reflects a combination of lender appetite for smaller, shorter-term exposure and continued consumer demand for accessible liquidity, with these products increasingly used to support short-term cash flow needs rather than larger, structured borrowing.

However, this rapid growth has been accompanied by rising risk. Account-level delinquencies increased by 193 bps to 49.8%, with delinquency levels now approaching half of all active non-bank personal loans. This highlights elevated stress within the segment and points to increasing pressure among higher-risk borrowers.

“Bank personal loans are entering a more stable phase characterised by controlled growth, targeted expansion into younger and moderate-risk segments and improved credit performance,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “While non-bank personal loans are expanding financial inclusion and access to liquidity, this growth is being driven by higher-risk and more financially vulnerable segments experiencing rising credit stress, raising important considerations around sustainability and risk management.”

Reliance on Credit Cards Increased as Repayment Pressure Grew

The credit card market also showed a clear shift in growth dynamics, with balance expansion increasingly driven by existing accounts rather than new cards issuance. Originations volume declined by 9.5% YoY, alongside a 4.1% YoY reduction in average credit limits, reflecting a more cautious lending environment.

Despite this, outstanding balances grew by 8.8% YoY, supported by increased utilisation as well as emerging repayment pressure which reduced card repayment levels. The number of active consumers rose by 6.4%, while average balances per account increased by 2.5%.  

Delinquencies also rose YoY, with account-level delinquencies increasing by 66 basis points to 13.6%, while delinquent balances increased by 16% YoY. As a consequence of increased delinquencies, lower repayment levels contributed to the rise in total account balances over the past year.

“While increased utilisation is contributing to balance growth, the faster rise in delinquent balances indicates that repayment pressure is becoming a more persistent driver,” said Hatea. “Credit cards are playing a dual role in the current environment. They are both a liquidity tool, supporting short-term cash flow needs, and a channel where financial pressure is becoming more visible through rising delinquency.”

Resilient Demand for Vehicle Asset Finance Supported by Increased Access to New Vehicles

Vehicle finance continued to demonstrate steady growth, supported by strong participation from younger consumers. Gen Z and Millennials now account for two-thirds (66%) of all originations, which increased by 11.6% YoY. This reflects sustained demand for mobility while highlighting the growing role that first-time and early-life stage borrowers play in sustaining market activity.

At the same time, there is a clear shift in the composition of financing, with the ratio of used to new vehicles declining to 0.93. This indicates that more new vehicles are now being financed than used, structurally elevating average origination values. Notably, this trend occurred even as more affordable new entrants, particularly Chinese brands, gained traction in the market, with one in five vehicles sold now coming from these manufacturers.

On the risk side, subprime originations have increased significantly, rising by over 33.5% YoY and now accounting for a quarter (25%) of all new vehicle finance. This suggests that growth is increasingly being driven by higher-risk segments, as lenders balance expansion with the need to sustain volumes.

Despite this increase in borrowing by riskier consumers, repayment performance improved, with account-level 3+ MIA delinquencies declining by 80 bps to 7.1%, indicating relatively strong borrower management of vehicle loans.

“Overall, the vehicle asset finance market reflects a complex but resilient environment. Demand remains strong, supported by younger consumers and improved access to new vehicles. However, rising exposure to higher-risk borrowers and increasing loan sizes will require enhanced early risk detection tools going forward to enable mobility and inclusion,” said Hatea.

Table 1: Key South African Consumer Credit Market Metrics (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026)

 *Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

“South Africa’s Q1 2026 insights highlight a credit landscape that remains active but increasingly segmented. While demand for credit persists, affordability constraints are reshaping how consumers borrow, with greater reliance on short-term liquidity and higher-risk products,” said Hatea. “These trends underscore the need for lenders to balance growth with prudent risk management while supporting sustainable access to credit across the market.”

South Africa’s passenger vehicle market remained resilient in the first quarter of 2026, but demand is evolving. Rising affordability pressures, higher fuel costs, the growth of Chinese brands and shifting powertrain preferences are reshaping the automotive landscape.

According to TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Mobility Insights Report, passenger vehicle sales reached 114,517 units in Q1 2026, slightly higher than the 114,246 units recorded in Q4 2025. Year-on-year (YoY) growth eased to 12.6%, down from the stronger performance seen during parts of 2025, but demand remained elevated despite a more uncertain macroeconomic environment.

A Stronger Start, But Growing External Pressures

The report, which provides a first quarter overview, indicates that South Africa entered 2026 on a stronger economic footing. This was supported by easing inflation, lower interest rates over the previous year, reduced load-shedding, and improved financial conditions.

However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the associated oil price shock have heightened downside risks. In March 2026, inflation increased from 3.1% to 4.0% in April 2026, while the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently raised the prime lending rate by 25-basis points in May 2026. Combined with higher fuel and transport costs, these factors are expected to place renewed pressure on affordability and consumer spending.

“Vehicle demand has not collapsed, but the market is moving into a more selective phase,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Consumers are still buying vehicles, but affordability is no longer only about the purchase price. Fuel costs, financing costs, insurance, servicing, and total cost of ownership are becoming central to the decision.”

Residual Value and the True Cost of Ownership

The report found that residual values are becoming an increasingly important component of vehicle affordability. As finance terms extend beyond six years for many buyers, depreciation and resale performance play a growing role in ownership economics, giving brands that retain value more effectively a competitive advantage.

The shift towards longer financing terms and the use of balloon structures reflects a growing focus on monthly affordability and cash-flow flexibility. However, this trend also increases exposure to residual value risk. Where vehicle values underperform expectations, consumers may face refinancing pressure or negative equity at trade-in, making used vehicle market performance an increasingly critical consideration.

Chinese Brands Reshape the Competitive Landscape

One of the most notable structural shifts is the continued rise of Chinese automotive brands. Chinese car sales grew by 75% YoY in Q1 2026, significantly outpacing traditional OEM growth of 2% and the broader passenger and light commercial vehicle (LCV) market growth of 12.7%. As a result, Chinese brands accounted for more than 19% of new passenger and LCV sales nationally, meaning nearly one in five new vehicles sold in South Africa was from a Chinese manufacturer in Q1 2026.

The shift is no longer driven solely by entry-level pricing. Chinese brands are increasingly competing on technology, features, fuel efficiency, range, warranty offerings, and perceived long-term value. On a combined portfolio basis, Chery Group, including Chery, Jetour, Omoda, and Jaecoo, recorded combined sales of 16,094 units in Q1 2026, positioning itself as a top three automotive player.

“Chinese brands have moved beyond the role of price disruptors. They are becoming structural industry players, influencing dealer networks, financing ecosystems, ownership perceptions, and the wider discussion around localisation and industrial competitiveness,” said Hatea.

Diverging Trends Across New and Used Markets

The new and used vehicle markets continued to show differing trends. NaTIS data indicates that new vehicle registrations increased by 11.6% YoY in Q1 2026, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. In contrast, used vehicle registrations increased by 2.6%, suggesting a modest recovery in the secondary market, although it still trails the stronger momentum seen in new vehicle sales.

The used-to-new registration ratio declined to 2.3 in Q1 2026, the lowest level recorded over the reporting period. While used vehicles still make up the majority at 69% of total registrations, the share of new vehicles has risen to 31%, up from 23% in Q4 2025. This shift has been supported by favourable pricing dynamics, with new vehicle inflation falling to 0.8%, while used vehicle prices remained in deflation at -1.3%.

Confidence Rises, But Caution Remains

Dealer sentiment also reflects the stronger demand environment. New vehicle dealer confidence increased to 67 in Q1 2026, its highest level in 13 years. However, the report cautions that increasing fuel costs, inflation risk, and rising operating expenses could create more challenging conditions in the quarters ahead.

Forward-looking consumer data remains constructive. TransUnion’s Consumer Pulse Survey found that consumers likely to purchase a vehicle in the next few months increased from 19% in Q4 2025 to 22% in Q1 2026. Short-term purchase intent is strongest amongst younger consumers, with 26% of Gen Z and 24% of Millennials indicating plans to buy.

A Gradual Shift in Powertrain Preferences

Powertrain preferences are also evolving. Internal combustion engine vehicles remain the most popular choice, preferred by 49% of consumers in Q1 2026. However, interest in hybrid electric vehicles has grown significantly to 39%, up from 30% in Q4 2025, making hybrids the leading electrified option. Interest in both battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids also increased, with each reaching 26%.

“Hybrids are emerging as a practical transition pathway for South African consumers. They offer fuel savings and lower running costs without full dependence on charging infrastructure, which makes them relevant in a market where affordability and operating certainty remain critical,” said Hatea.

A Market Entering Its Next Phase

While domestic demand continues to support the industry, passenger vehicle exports remain under pressure amid trade uncertainty, geopolitical disruption, protectionism, and changing decarbonisation requirements.

“The South African automotive market is not reverting to its previous structure. The next phase will be defined by affordability, value, access to finance and how effectively industry players respond to evolving consumer behaviour,” said Hatea.

South Africa had the highest rate of suspected digital fraud^[1] among African countries analysed, with 3.0% of transactions involving consumers in South Africa being suspected of digital fraud during 2025 – slightly below the global average of 3.8%.

In 2025, the median reported fraud loss among South African consumers who said that they had lost funds to digital fraud (email, online, phone call and text messages) in the previous year, was R11,055 – the second highest in Africa, after Kenya, and well below the global median of R27,879.^[2]

These are among the findings in the TransUnion H1 2026 Update: Top Fraud Trends report, which shows that South Africa’s digital fraud landscape has become more complex, with generative AI likely accelerating the scale and sophistication of criminal activity. This has enabled fraudsters to target both consumers and businesses with greater precision and speed.

South African consumers are increasingly facing co-ordinated, identity-driven and cross-channel attacks similar to those seen in mature digital economies. As a result, digital fraud has shifted deeper into the consumer journey: one third (33%) of South African consumers who said they lost money from digital fraud in the last year reported those losses stemmed from third-party seller scams on legitimate ecommerce platforms. This indicates that losses are not occurring because consumers transacted in a suspect or unsafe environment – but because fraudsters successfully embedded themselves into environments that appeared credible, familiar and trusted.

“This signals a market where criminals are exploiting established trust, active accounts and verified digital relationships, and is a clear break from global fraud patterns typically dominated by phishing and vishing – fraudulent phone calls or voice messages designed to deceive consumers into sharing sensitive information or sending money,” said Amritha Reddy, senior director of fraud product management TransUnion Africa. “In South Africa, fraudsters succeed where trust is already established, particularly inside mainstream digital platforms where consumers reasonably expect safety and legitimacy.”

“Criminals are weaponising both consumer trust and emerging technologies,” said Reddy. “As GenAI accelerates the sophistication and scale of criminal operations, the threat landscape is evolving faster than ever for consumers and businesses. Addressing this requires a new generation of identity centric defences that combine advanced analytics, adaptive authentication and multilayered digital fraud detection. Organisations must match fraudsters’ technological innovation to stay ahead of rapidly changing schemes.”

Chart 1: Most Prominent Cause of Fraud Loss

Percentage reporting losing money to these schemes among South Africans who said they lost funds from digital fraud in the last year.

Source:  TransUnion consumer survey

Most Fraud Attempts Occur at Account Login

The suspected digital fraud rate for attempted transactions where the consumer was in South Africa declined from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025, a trend also observed globally. Nevertheless, this decrease does not necessarily indicate reduced criminal activity; rather, it may reflect a shift toward AI-enabled tactics designed to maximise return on investment.

South Africa is one of the few markets where the highest rate of suspected digital fraud attempts* happen at account login, with 3.0.% of account login attempts being flagged as potentially fraudulent, compared to 2.4% at account creation and 0.7% of financial transactions. This trend suggests that attackers are increasingly trying to compromise existing accounts, in contrast to other countries globally where new account creation is a key focus for fraudsters.

“This inversion tells a powerful story that criminals in South Africa are now targeting access using compromised credentials, SIM-swap-enabled entry and social engineering to take over existing accounts,” said Reddy. “This means that vendors and financial institutions need to expand their fraud prevention strategies beyond the new customer onboarding phase, continuing to implement verification throughout the consumer lifecycle – but without the unnecessary friction that will see genuine consumers seeking alternative sites.”

Findings from the survey also show that consumers most preferred top feature when choosing whom to transact with online is confidence that their personal data is secure, with 85% of respondents saying it was very important. This was followed by an easy payment process (80%) and ease of filling out forms or applications (72%).

“The fact that security is the top reported feature shows that consumers are willing to accept friction when completing digital transactions, provided it’s clearly linked to protection,” Reddy said. “As a result, security in South Africa is evolving beyond compliance and emerging as a key driver of brand trust and differentiation.”

Government Sector Most Affected by Digital Fraud Attempts

Suspected digital fraud attempts across Africa^[3] in 2025 showed fraudsters focusing on very different industries depending on the country, reflecting local digital behaviours and opportunity points. Globally, the most vulnerable industry was video gaming, where 12.8% of transactions were suspected of digital fraud attempts. Across African countries analysed, gaming also recorded the highest suspected digital fraud rate, driven by Kenya, where 15.6% of gaming transactions were flagged – the highest rate observed for any industry in Africa.

In South Africa, the rate of suspected digital fraud where the consumer was in the country was the most prevalent among government transactions, at 12.5%, highlighting risks tied to public-sector digitalisation.

“Digitalisation has improved access to public services, but it has also created new risks for fraud,” said Reddy. “Fraudsters are leveraging official government branding and service-related messages to impersonate the state and deceive citizens.”

Chart 2: Suspected Digital Fraud Attempts in South Africa, by Sector

“South Africa has entered an advanced fraud phase where criminals exploit trust, operate across channels and target established digital relationships rather than weak entry points. Fraud is increasingly occurring inside legitimate marketplaces and impersonated public services, while risk remains consistently highest at login, as it has been on an annual basis.”

“As criminals increasingly weaponise new technologies to carry out sophisticated scams, it’s more important than ever for consumers to safeguard their personal information and to review their credit reports regularly,” said Reddy.

“For businesses, the call to action is clear: fraud strategies must extend beyond compliance and onboarding controls to actively protect trust across the entire digital journey. Organisations that invest in adaptive authentication, identity intelligence and visible security at moments of access will be best positioned to reduce fraud, preserve customer confidence and differentiate their brands in South Africa’s digital economy,” she added.

TransUnion came to its conclusions about digital fraud based on a global survey of 12,730 consumers in 18 countries and regions from Nov. 20–Dec. 9, 2025, and intelligence from its array of TransUnion fraud prevention solutions. To learn more about how TransUnion fraud prevention solutions can help businesses avoid fraud and prevent fraud losses, click here.

Specific country and regional data in the report includes South Africa, Botswana, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, Nicaragua, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Zambia. Download the TransUnion H1 2026 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report for more information and insights about the global fraud trends. 

^[1] Suspected digital fraud attempts reflects those which TransUnion clients determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon client investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation. The country and regional analyses examined transactions in which the consumer or suspected fraudster was located in a select country or region when conducting a transaction. Global statistics represent every country worldwide and not just the select countries and regions.

^[2] Exchange rate calculated at R16.69 to the US dollar as per the exchange rate for 29 December 2025.

^[3] TransUnion analysed the suspected digital fraud rate in its global intelligence network for the African countries of Botswana, Kenya, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia.

According to TransUnion’s latest insights, increases in fuel prices, renewed food inflation, and persistently higher borrowing costs are reshaping consumer sentiment, shifting from early signs of recovery in 2026, to a more defensive posture.

This comes as the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivers its latest interest rate decision of a 25-basis points increase, against a backdrop of rising inflation, which increased to 4.0% in April from 3.1% in March, reflecting persistent price pressures across essential categories.

Incremental Increase Adds to Mounting Financial Pressure

Following the MPC’s decision to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, TransUnion notes that the move reinforces a financial environment where household momentum is already being challenged, and cost pressures are compounding.

“A 0.25% increase lands on households that are already under strain,” says Lee Naik, chief executive officer, TransUnion Africa. “This is not a new shock; it is an amplification of pressures that consumers are already managing. The combination of higher instalments and rising living costs accelerates the shift from cautious optimism to caution.”

Data from TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Industry Insights Report shows elevated delinquency across several credit products, while TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Consumer Pulse Study highlights increased reliance on credit and sustained reductions in spending.

“When fuel, food and borrowing costs rise together, the impact is not incremental; it is compounding. That is where we see the real pressure emerge, and where financial behaviour shifts decisively,” Naik adds.

Multiple Cost Pressures Converge

“The risk is not just higher rates; it is the combination of cost pressures hitting at once. The affordability challenge becomes immediate and more difficult to manage,” Naik adds.

TransUnion notes that the key issue is no longer the rate decision in isolation, reflecting the cumulative strain of overlapping cost pressures on household affordability.

“At the start of 2026, there was a sense that consumers were beginning to stabilise, with some early signs of recovery in repayment behaviour and financial resilience. That momentum is now being challenged,” says Naik.

“We are seeing a clear shift toward greater caution, as rising fuel and food costs begin to outweigh any incremental relief. The financial pressure facing households is no longer emerging, it is entrenched.”

Even ahead of the MPC outcome, the financial environment facing consumers has materially tightened. TransUnion’s Q1 2026 Consumer Pulse Study showed widespread behavioural adjustment, with households cutting discretionary spending, increasing reliance on credit, and drawing down savings buffers to manage rising living costs.

At the same time, household affordability is being eroded by cost escalation across essential categories. Household food basket data (PMBEJD April 2026) shows the average basket rising to R5,452.09, marking a clear re-acceleration in food inflation driven by fuel and logistics costs.

Credit performance data from TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Industry Insights Report  further reflects growing strain, particularly in non-bank lending segments where delinquency remains elevated, signalling deep financial vulnerability among consumers.

“Consumers are not reacting to a single shock. They are responding to a sustained financial pressure building over time,” adds Naik. “What we are seeing now is a structural shift in behaviour, where households are increasingly prioritising essentials, protecting debt commitments and managing risk more cautiously.”

Looking Ahead: A Structurally More Cautious Consumer Cycle

TransUnion’s outlook remains clear: South African consumers are entering a more cautious financial cycle, as the momentum of 2025 is increasingly challenged by sustained and broad-based cost pressures.

“The environment has shifted from short-term stress to structural pressure,” concludes Naik. “Consumers are no longer adjusting temporarily, they are recalibrating how they manage money, prioritise spending and engage with credit in a more constrained and uncertain environment.”

• More than four in ten (41%) of South Africans cite inflation for everyday goods as their top financial concern, while 35% of all surveyed expect to be unable to pay at least one current bill or loan in full
• Consumers are actively adjusting behaviour: 51% said they cut discretionary spending, 35% paid down debt faster, and 29% increased emergency savings or stokvel contributions in the last three months
• Nearly seven in ten (69%) remain optimistic about their household finances over the next 12 months, although this has declined from 72% in Q4 2025, reflecting more cautious confidence

South African consumers are adjusting their financial behaviour in response to ongoing cost pressures, with TransUnion's Q1 2026 Consumer Pulse Study^[1]  revealing meaningful shifts in how households spend, save and manage credit. While many households remain under financial strain, the findings point to a shift toward more deliberate and considered financial decision-making.

The study found that inflation for everyday goods remains the leading financial concern, cited by 41% of respondents as their top financial worry. 35% of consumers indicated that they expect to be unable to pay at least one of their current bills or loans in full.

Against this backdrop, consumer sentiment remains measured. More than two-thirds (69%) of respondents said they are optimistic about their household finances over the next 12 months, down from 72% in Q4 2025, while 14% expressed pessimism and 17% indicated they are neither optimistic nor pessimistic.

“Consumers are not necessarily experiencing financial ease, but they are responding in practical ways to manage pressure,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “What we are seeing is a shift toward more deliberate financial behaviour, where households are actively adjusting spending, prioritising obligations and, where they can, building financial buffers.”

Spending Pullbacks and Savings Adjustments Take Hold

In response to continued financial pressure, many South Africans have adjusted their financial behaviour over the past three months. More than half of the respondents (51%) reported cutting back on discretionary spending such as dining out, travel and entertainment, while 31% said they cancelled subscriptions or memberships.

At the same time, some households report taking steps to strengthen their financial position in the past three months. The study found that 35% of respondents said they paid down debt faster, while 29% reported increasing contributions to emergency savings or stokvels. A further 23% said they increased their retirement savings.

“These behaviours reflect a more cautious and intentional approach to money management. Consumers are looking for ways to maintain stability, whether by reducing non-essential expenses, managing debt more actively or setting aside funds for future needs,” said Hatea.

Financial Outlook Reflects Cautious Confidence

Despite ongoing affordability challenges, the study points to cautious consumer expectations at the time it was conducted. The research was carried out in late February, prior to recent geopolitical developments and ahead of the most recent South African Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announcement, which left the prime lending rate unchanged. Emerging global market volatility may further shape consumer sentiment and financial behaviour going forward.

More than one in three consumers (35%) expect their spending on bills and loans such as housing, utilities, insurance and credit cards to increase over the next three months. The same percentage (35%) anticipate higher spending on medical care and services during that timeframe. Additionally, 38% expect to increase contributions toward retirement funds and investments. Conversely, a smaller percentage said they’d increase their spending on in-store or online retail shopping such as clothing, electronics and durable goods (29%), large purchases like appliances and cars (26%), digital services (25%) and discretionary spending (21%).

“This pattern suggests that consumers are prioritising essential and future-oriented expenses, while remaining more selective in discretionary areas. It reflects a mindset where financial decisions are being made with greater scrutiny,” said Hatea.

Credit Remains Important, but Caution is Evident

Access to credit continues to play an important role in how consumers manage their finances. However, when it comes to new credit products, TransUnion’s survey indicates that households are approaching borrowing more carefully in the current environment.

Among respondents, 41% indicated that they have used Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services in the past year. For those who have used BNPL, avoiding credit card interest was a key motivation, while non-users most frequently cited avoiding additional debt as the top reason for never using BNPL.

“The role of credit is evolving,” Hatea said. “Consumers still rely on it to manage cash flow and navigate short-term pressures, but there is also a clear awareness of the need to avoid overextension. That balance between access and caution is becoming more important.”

Adapting to a More Demanding Financial Environment

The quarterly findings point to a consumer environment defined less by financial comfort and more by ongoing adjustment. While sentiment has softened slightly from the previous quarter, many South Africans are actively managing their finances amid ongoing cost pressures.

“Rather than a broad sense of financial confidence, we are seeing a more grounded and pragmatic approach,” said Hatea. “Consumers are making deliberate trade-offs to stay on top of their obligations and build resilience where possible. As economic uncertainty persists, the ability to adapt spending, savings and credit behaviour is likely to remain a defining feature of the South African consumer landscape.”

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here. 
 

^[1] Methodology: Online survey of 992 South African adults conducted 10–23 February 2026 by TransUnion in partnership with Dynata.

In her role, Botha will lead TransUnion Africa’s Legal, Risk and Compliance function across South Africa, Botswana, eSwatini, Namibia, Kenya, Rwanda, Zambia, and Malawi. Her remit spans aligning legal and regulatory strategy with business objectives, strengthening governance frameworks, and supporting sustainable growth across these markets, with a strong focus on advancing transparency, fairness and consumer protection across the financial ecosystem.

Botha brings over 17 years of experience in legal advisory, compliance, privacy and corporate governance, with deep expertise across credit bureau regulation and financial services. Her appointment reflects TransUnion’s continued commitment to building a future-ready organisation that balances innovation with strong regulatory and risk management practices, anchored in responsible data use and positive consumer outcomes.

She most recently served as Director of Compliance at TransUnion Africa, where she led compliance strategy across eight African jurisdictions, driving governance, regulatory engagement and risk management at an executive level. Her work has consistently focused on translating regulatory requirements into practical frameworks that support both business resilience and consumer trust. Prior to this, Botha held the role of Privacy Counsel, where she established the Africa Privacy Committee and played a key role in enhancing the organisation’s privacy framework and regulatory relationships across the continent.

Earlier in her career and prior to TransUnion, Botha served as an in-house legal advisor and executive where she built and scaled the organisation’s legal and compliance functions, led mergers and acquisitions activities, and supported complex investment transactions. Her experience spans multi-jurisdictional regulatory engagement, corporate governance, and advising executive teams and boards on a wide range of risk and compliance matters.

In addition to her executive role, Botha has played an active leadership role in the broader industry, serving as Board Chair and Non-Executive Director of the Direct Marketing Association of South Africa, and contributing to regulatory and industry developments through various forums.

Botha’s appointment comes at a time when organisations are navigating increasingly complex regulatory environments, rapid technological advancements, and evolving market dynamics. In her new role, she will focus on aligning legal and compliance capabilities with TransUnion Africa’s business strategy, enabling innovation while maintaining robust governance and risk management frameworks, ensuring these capabilities continue to build confidence in financial markets.

Her priorities include strengthening regulatory and industry engagement, supporting expansion into new markets, enhancing cross-border legal and compliance capabilities, and ensuring the organisation remains agile and responsive to emerging trends, including the evolving use of data and technology within the financial ecosystem.

Lee Naik CEO and Regional President at TransUnion Africa, commented: “Annemie brings a unique combination of legal expertise, commercial acumen and a deep understanding of our business and markets. Her ability to translate complex regulatory requirements into practical, business-enabling solutions makes her exceptionally well positioned for this role. She brings a clear focus on ensuring our regulatory approach continues to support transparency, accountability and trust across the markets we serve. We are confident that under her leadership, our Legal, Risk and Compliance function will continue to play a critical role in supporting TransUnion Africa’s growth and strategic ambitions.”

Botha added: “I am honoured to take on the role of General Counsel at such an exciting time for TransUnion Africa. We have a strong foundation in place, and my focus will be on ensuring that our legal, risk and compliance capabilities remain closely aligned to our business strategy, enabling innovation while supporting sustainable growth. We are committed to upholding high standards of transparency and responsible data use, recognising the important role we play in strengthening confidence across the financial value chain. I look forward to working with our teams across the region to build on this momentum and drive meaningful impact for our clients and the markets we serve whilst ensuring we deliver on our mission of Information for Good.”

Botha succeeds Jeannine Naudé in leading Legal, Risk and Compliance following Naudé’s appointment as Head of Africa Regions for TransUnion in January.

While some improvement in repayment behaviour was observed toward the end of 2025, this stability is proving short-lived. Rising living costs, increasing reliance on credit, and limited financial buffers mean that many consumers are entering 2026 in a vulnerable position, with little capacity to absorb additional economic shocks.

The decision to leave interest rates unchanged may offer a sense of short-term stability, but it does little to ease the underlying financial strain facing households.

“Stable rates do not translate into financial relief for most consumers,” says Fatgie Adams, Head of Credit Risk Solutions at TransUnion. “Many households are already under pressure, and upcoming increases in fuel and food costs are likely to erode any temporary stability created by a hold decision.”

Insights from the TransUnion Q4 2025 Consumer Pulse Study (CPS) show that households have already begun adjusting their behaviour in response to financial stress. More than half of consumers report cutting discretionary spending, while a significant portion have reduced clothing purchases, delayed major expenses, and scaled back on services such as subscriptions and digital platforms. At the same time, the study indicates a growing reliance on credit, with a notable share of consumers using credit to manage shortfalls in their monthly budgets.

This behavioural shift is reinforced by credit performance trends from the TransUnion Q4 2025 Industry Insights Report (IIR), which highlights continued strain in key segments. Credit card delinquency remains elevated at 17.4% (balance-level), while non-bank personal loan delinquency is critically high at 53.4% (consumer-level). These figures highlight deep vulnerability among financially stretched consumers, with short-term credit products showing the most acute distress. Although home loan delinquency remains relatively stable at 7.5%, it is still elevated, pointing to persistent pressure even within more structured credit product.

“Consumers may appear stable on the surface, but in reality, many are already in a form of financial triage,” Adams adds. “A flat rate environment simply provides time to prepare, it does not remove the pressure.”

With fuel prices expected to rise sharply in the coming months and food costs remaining persistently high, the overall cost of living is likely to increase further, placing additional strain on already stretched household budgets.

Regardless of the outcome, the broader picture remains one of rising pressure on household finances. The combination of higher living costs, constrained income growth and existing debt obligations means that many consumers will need to navigate the months ahead with increased caution.

Maintaining a clear view of essential expenses, staying on top of repayments, and making considered financial decisions will be critical as cost pressures continue to build.

TransUnion’s Q4 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report shows the consumer credit market shifting from a tentative recovery to broader stabilisation driven by steady inflation and interest rates, as well as improvements in consumers’ repayment behaviour. During the quarter there was again notable growth in vehicle asset finance and the personal loans market, while retail credit saw a change in product preference with consumers making smaller purchases. 

South Africa's vehicle finance market continued its expansion in Q4 2025, with a fifth consecutive quarter of sustained growth. The growth in total loan balances continued to outpace new account volumes, indicating a firmer continued recovery in demand supported by a more accommodative interest rate environment following a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut in November, which further improved household affordability. Origination volumes rose 9.9% year-over-year (YoY), supported by strong consumer interest in affordable new car models and sustained lender confidence. The average new loan amount also climbed, by 3.3% YoY.

Much of this growth was driven by younger consumers, with Gen Z and Millennials^[1] accounting for 66% of all originations. Lenders demonstrated an increased risk appetite, with originations to riskier below-prime borrowers growing by 20.2% YoY. This expansion coincided with positive repayment performance, as account-level delinquencies (the percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears) declining by 59 bps YoY to 6.8%.

The market dynamics were further shaped by a significant shift in the used-to-new vehicle financing ratio, which declined to 0.96 used vehicles for every new one financed, down from 1.56 in Q4 2024. This shift towards more new vehicle financing reflects the availability of budget-friendly new models and favourable inflation trends.

More consumers chose longer loan terms to improve monthly affordability too: in Q4 2025, 56.4% of consumers chose a loan term of 72 months or more, compared to 51.9% who made the same choice one year prior. This marked the first quarter this decade that more than half of consumers chose the longest vehicle finance term available.

“The change in the used‑to‑new finance ratio indicates stronger momentum in new‑vehicle financing and can also be attributed to shifting consumer preferences,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “With advancements in technology, new vehicles often offer more features, safety upgrades, and improved fuel efficiency compared to older models, along with longer and more comprehensive warranties.”

“The data on longer loan terms highlights how consumers are adjusting their spending patterns and making strategic financial decisions. By opting for longer loan terms, many are able to manage their monthly payments more effectively and potentially afford a newer or higher-priced vehicle,” she added.

Diverging Strategies Shaped Personal Loan Market

The personal loan market showed a distinct divergence in Q4 2025 as bank and non-bank lenders pursued contrasting growth strategies. Bank personal loan originations grew by 10.2% YoY with average new account amounts up by 10.7% YoY, extending larger loan amounts to lower-risk consumer cohorts. This disciplined approach yielded better repayment performance as account-level delinquencies for bank loans dropped by 271 bps YoY to 27.0%.

Conversely, non‑bank lenders grew their portfolios quickly by shifting toward smaller loans, with average new account amounts down 2.8% YoY and the total volume of originations up 14.7% YoY. Younger borrowers drove a significant portion of this growth, with the volume of new loans issued to Gen Z borrowers climbing 39.6%. However, in contrast to bank lenders, which target relatively better risk borrowers, non-bank lenders’ customer bases are heavily skewed toward the riskiest subprime^[2] consumers. As a result of this exposure, account-level delinquencies for non-bank loans remained elevated at 48.0%.

“These trends highlight a clear market split. Banks successfully managed risk while expanding their active books through larger loans to lower-risk borrowers. Meanwhile, non-bank lenders extended credit access to higher-risk borrowers through smaller loans, but faced notable repayment strain,” said Hatea.

Retail Credit Adapted as Buy Now Pay Later Gained Traction

The retail credit sector showed signs of a strategic shift in Q4 2025, influenced by changing consumer behaviours and the growing adoption of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) solutions. While the clothing account sector showed resilience account originations growing by 7.2% YoY, other areas of retail credit saw a decline in new account openings. Retail instalment origination volumes decreased 19.4% YoY, and revolving credit originations fell 16.6% YoY.

This downturn in traditional retail credit originations could be influenced by increasing popularity of BNPL solutions in the market. TransUnion’s Q4 2025 Consumer Pulse Study shows 57% of South African respondents hold a BNPL product, and 36% have used a BNPL product multiple times in the last 12 months to pay for goods and services.

“Consumers appear to be choosing these flexible payment options for smaller credit purchases, drawn to their fixed or interest-free instalment plans,” said Hatea. “However, this trend has not yet significantly affected clothing accounts, which benefit from strong consumer loyalty and accessibility.”

Despite fewer new accounts in some retail segments, possibly also influenced by tighter lending policies, portfolio health shows positive signs. Account-level delinquencies for clothing accounts fell 213 bps YoY to 24.5% and retail revolving delinquencies dropped 238 bps YoY to 17.6%. Lenders also adapted their strategies: the average clothing account limits went up 6.8% YoY, while the average limit for revolving accounts also grew, by 3.9% YoY. This suggests a focus on providing more credit to existing, credit-healthy customers while managing the influx of new, potentially riskier borrowers.

Table 1: Key South African Consumer Credit Market Metrics (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)

*Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

“In Q4 2025, lenders widened access to credit where consumers showed stronger repayment discipline, tightening where risk accumulated and reshaping their portfolios towards lower risk borrowers,” Hatea said. “The data suggests that lenders’ priorities are shifting from stabilisation towards sustainable momentum as they pair cautious growth with sharper exposure discipline, deeper affordability insights and refined product strategies.”

^[1] TransUnion age distribution: Gen Z (Born 1995 – 2010); Millennials (Born 1980-1994); Gen X (Born 1965-1979); Baby Boomers (Born 1946-1964)

^[2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).

South Africa’s automotive market closed 2025 at its strongest level in more than a decade, supported by easing interest rates, improving vehicle pricing, and a decisive shift in how consumers evaluate vehicle affordability. While headline sales reflect a clear recovery, underlying patterns reveal a market increasingly shaped by value, sharper segmentation and intensifying competition.

According to the TransUnion South Africa Q4 2025 Mobility Insights Report, new passenger vehicle sales reached 422,103 units in 2025, representing 20.1% year-on-year growth. Momentum remained firm into the final quarter, with 114,246 vehicles sold in Q4, making it the strongest quarterly performance based on volume of the post-pandemic period.

“This recovery is real, but it is far from uniform,” says Ayesha Hatea, Senior Director of Research and Consulting at TransUnion Africa. “What we’re seeing is not a return to old buying patterns, but a more deliberate, affordability-driven market where consumers are weighing value, monthly repayments and long-term ownership costs far more carefully.”

Value Brands Cement a Structural Shift

One of the standout trends of 2025 has been the continued rise of Chinese manufacturers. These Chinese brands expanded at nearly nine times the pace of the overall market, lifting their share to more than 17% of total new passenger vehicle sales, up from less than 5% just four years ago.

Aggressive pricing of enhanced specifications, extended warranties and growing consumer trust have fuelled intensifying competitive pressure across all segments of the market.

“This is no longer a short-term disruption,” Hatea explains. “Value brands are now firmly embedded in South Africa’s automotive ecosystem, and their success highlights how decisively affordability and perceived value are influencing purchasing decisions.”

New Vehicles Regain Ground as Pricing Gaps Narrow

Improved affordability conditions shifted demand back toward new vehicles in Q4. New vehicle registrations rose 30.1% year-on-year, compared with just 0.7% growth in used vehicle registrations, narrowing the gap between the two segments. The used-to-new ratio declined to 2.9, down from approximately 3.8 in 2024.

This shift was supported by record-low new vehicle inflation of 1.2%, alongside 1.9% deflation in used vehicle prices, making monthly repayments on new vehicles increasingly competitive.

These trends align with a broader macroeconomic environment focused on easing pressure on household finances, as reinforced in South Africa’s 2026 National Budget delivered by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, which emphasised fiscal stability and moderating inflation. Against this backdrop, TransUnion’s data shows vehicle demand remains highly sensitive to interest rates, fuel costs and financing conditions.

“When repayment gaps narrow, buyer behaviour changes quickly,” says Hatea. “But affordability remains the single most powerful lever in sustaining demand.”

Younger Buyers Drive Momentum as Premium Demand Cools

Consumer sentiment showed modest improvement in Q4, with the share of consumers planning to buy a vehicle in the next three months rising from 17% in Q3 to 19% in Q4, according to the TransUnion Consumer Pulse Survey.

That improvement was driven primarily by younger consumers. Gen Z (ages 18-29) purchase intent increased to 25%, while Millennials (ages 30-45) rose to 21%, compared to 14% for Gen X (ages 46-61) and 7% for Baby Boomers (ages 62-80), underscoring a clear generational divide in demand.

At the same time, demand among high-income households has begun to normalise. While consumers in the highest income segment continued to show the strongest purchase intent at 20%, this marked a notable decline from 34% in Q3, indicating a cooling in premium-led purchasing.

“The centre of gravity is shifting,” Hatea notes. “Growth is increasingly coming from younger, more price-sensitive buyers rather than the top end of the market.”

Electrification Advances, on Practical Terms

Electrified mobility continued to gain traction in 2025, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reaching approximately 16,700 units, representing 4% of new passenger vehicle sales, up from just 0.3% in 2021.

Growth remains firmly hybrid-led, with traditional hybrids representing nearly three-quarters of NEV sales, reflecting consumer preference for lower upfront costs and limited reliance on charging infrastructure. Battery-electric vehicles remain concentrated among higher-income buyers.

“South Africa’s electrification journey is progressing, but it is pragmatic rather than aggressive,” says Hatea. “Hybrids are bridging the gap between affordability and sustainability.”

A Market Rebalanced, Not Recovered

As the industry looks ahead to 2026, TransUnion’s data suggests a market that has stabilised but remains finely balanced. “The next phase of growth will be incremental and affordability-driven,” Hatea concludes. “Manufacturers, dealers and financiers that align closely with how South Africans are actually buying, not how they bought a decade ago will be best positioned to compete.”

Read the full Q4 2025 TransUnion South Africa Mobility Insights Report here.

Rogers brings more than two decades of technology leadership, digital transformation, and product innovation experience across key African markets, including Botswana, Kenya, Rwanda, Namibia, Zambia, eSwatini, South Africa, and Malawi. His appointment underscores TransUnion’s commitment to developing market‑relevant, scalable solutions that enable organisations across Africa to grow responsibly, manage risk, and broaden access to financial services.

Most recently, Rogers served at Mastercard, where he led consulting engagement across the continent, developing new solutions for the payments ecosystem and driving performance for banking, fintech and digital commerce clients.

Prior to Mastercard, Rogers was Chief Executive Officer of Tarsus Technology Solutions, where he integrated multiple technology businesses spanning cybersecurity, infrastructure and networking and led group-wide digital transformation. He spent 18 years at Accenture, building and scaling technology consulting practices in South Africa, and was the first South African to attain Accenture’s Master Technology Architect certification.

In his new role, Rogers will lead TransUnion Africa’s end‑to‑end product strategy, with responsibility for advancing the product portfolio and strengthening sector‑specific solutions across banking, fintech, insurance, retail, automotive, telecommunications and digital commerce. His focus includes enhancing core credit and risk offerings, accelerating the responsible use of alternative data, and expanding fraud, identity and advanced analytics capabilities to meet evolving market needs.

Working closely with regional and global teams, Rogers will ensure TransUnion’s products are locally relevant, compliant and scalable across diverse African regulatory environments. A key priority will be simplifying product adoption and enhancing decisioning outcomes, enabling clients to more effectively acquire, serve and protect consumers in increasingly digital and data‑driven markets, while supporting inclusive growth across the continent.

Lee Naik, CEO and Regional President for TransUnion Africa, commented: “Mike brings an exceptional blend of technology, product and leadership experience, with a deep understanding of how data-driven products create commercial and social impact.  His appointment strengthens our ability to market-relevant solutions that help clients manage risk, grow responsibly and extend access to financial services across Africa.”

Rogers added: “TransUnion Africa sits at the intersection of trust, data and technology. My focus is to simplify adoption, improve decisioning quality and deliver products that create tangible value – helping our clients acquire, serve and protect customers in increasingly digital ecosystems. I am excited to partner with our teams and clients to bring the next generation of solutions to market.”

In her role, Naudé will lead TransUnion’s Africa Regions portfolio across Botswana, Kenya, Rwanda, Namibia, Zambia, eSwatini, South Africa and Malawi, with responsibility for driving growth, performance and strategic execution across these markets.

Naudé has served as TransUnion Africa’s Chief General Counsel for the past nine years and most recently stepped into the role of Interim Head of Africa Regions, where she demonstrated strong strategic leadership and operational continuity across the portfolio. Her permanent appointment reflects TransUnion’s continued focus on driving sustainable growth, strengthening market competitiveness, and advancement of the company’s strategic priorities across the continent for the benefit of clients and consumers.

During her tenure as Chief General Counsel, Naudé transformed the Legal, Risk and Compliance function into a strategic and trusted business partner, supporting TransUnion Africa’s growth ambitions while strengthening regulatory, industry and stakeholder relationships across multiple markets. She has led several high-impact initiatives, including implementation of new regulatory frameworks and initiatives in multiple African countries, the consolidation of multiple legal entities, TransUnion’s minority investment in Omnisient, and the evaluation and execution of wider expansion opportunities across the continent.

Naudé has also played a key role in advancing TransUnion’s focus on financial inclusion, women inclusion and wider ESG initiatives, as well as wider use of alternative data, leading global engagements with organisations such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the World Bank. Naudé currently serves as Co-Chair of the Africa Credit Information Sharing Association (ACISA) and plays an active role in the Africa Regional Consultative Group as well as several industry bodies, reinforcing TransUnion’s leadership within the broader financial ecosystem.

Over the past five months, Naudé has successfully steered the Africa Regions portfolio in an interim capacity, working closely with the regional leadership team to sustain momentum and performance. Her priorities include driving sustainable growth in core and emerging markets, strengthening regulatory and industry partnerships, enhancing operational execution, and building a future‑ready organisation through talent development and regional collaboration. A key focus of her role is advancing financial inclusion for the more than 500 million Africans outside the formal financial system by bringing TransUnion’s global solutions to market in ways that support inclusive, data‑driven outcomes for clients and consumers.

Lee Naik, CEO and Regional President for TransUnion Africa, commented: “Jeannine has been instrumental in shaping TransUnion Africa’s growth journey over the past nine years. Her deep understanding of our markets, strong commercial acumen and ability to balance strategy with execution make her well suited to lead our Africa Regions. We are confident that under her leadership, TransUnion Africa will continue to deliver meaningful impact for our clients, consumers and partners.”

Naudé added: “I am honoured to take on the role of Head of Africa Regions at such an important time for TransUnion. Having worked closely with our teams across the continent, I am excited to build on the strong foundation already in place, drive sustainable growth, and continue advancing solutions that support financial inclusion and economic opportunity across Africa.”

As economic pressure mounts and the cost of living continues to rise, South Africans are seeking new ways to balance their monthly budgets without falling deeper into debt. Within this landscape, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) models are rapidly reshaping how consumers approach spending, offering flexibility and access while encouraging responsible money management.

Industry leaders agree that when used correctly, BNPL can be more than a payment tool; it can be a gateway to financial wellness, empowering consumers to make informed, controlled spending decisions that support long-term stability.

“Financial wellness goes beyond survival,” says Mladen Čolić, Head of Fintech at TransUnion South Africa. “It’s about giving consumers visibility into their financial behaviour and the tools to make better decisions. Responsible BNPL use can play a meaningful role in that journey, helping people manage their cash flow, avoid high cost or unmanageable debt, and build a foundation for long-term financial stability.”

From Financial Stability to Financial Wellness

The most recent TransUnion Q4 2025 Consumer Pulse Study shows that while South African households remain under financial pressure, signs of financial adaptation are emerging. In Q4, 48% of consumers reported that their household finances were better than planned, yet 36% anticipated missing at least one bill or loan repayment, highlighting the continued strain many households face. In response, 51% of consumers reported cutting discretionary spending, while others adjusted budgets and prioritised longer-term financial stability. Within this cautious environment, more consumers are turning to flexible digital credit options like BNPL which, when used responsibly, can offer a manageable form of short-term borrowing to help navigate ongoing affordability pressures.

According to data from Payflex, the South African BNPL market Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is greater than 80% since 2022, with usage particularly strong in fashion, beauty, and consumer electronics categories. E-commerce platforms continue to drive adoption, and BNPL transactions will account for an estimated R25 billion in annual retail spend by 2026, highlighting its growing role in the formal retail economy.

This shift reflects an evolution in how consumers think about money. Financial stability is about meeting immediate needs, keeping bills paid and food on the table while financial wellness goes further, focusing on sustainable, informed financial behaviours that build confidence and resilience over time.

How BNPL Supports Smarter Spending

BNPL allows consumers to purchase goods or services and repay them over a short, fixed instalment period, typically three or four payments at zero interest when paid on time, offering a structured alternative to other forms of short-term credit. For some consumers, avoiding revolving debt allows them to plan purchases more effectively and smooth out cash flow without the burden of high-interest credit.

“BNPL isn’t about fuelling more debt,” says Tracey-Lee Zürcher-Campbell, Chief Marketing Officer at Payflex. “It’s about giving consumers flexibility and predictability, helping them manage their cash flow responsibly while avoiding the pitfalls of high-interest credit. When used correctly, BNPL can support everyday financial stability and contribute to broader financial wellness.”

She adds that this level of transparency is key to consumer trust: “South Africans are increasingly discerning about the financial tools they use. They want products that help them live better within their means, not overextend them. BNPL works when it’s built around clarity, discipline, and accountability.”

Data, Discipline, and Wealth Creation

Responsible BNPL models, supported by data analytics, affordability checks, and consumer education are essential to keeping the category sustainable. For many, these tools also offer a path toward financial inclusion.

Encouraging on-time repayments and transparent data sharing enables BNPL providers to help consumers build a positive payment history, strengthening their financial reputation over time. “When BNPL data is shared responsibly, every on-time payment becomes a useful indicator of positive financial behaviour,” says Čolić. “These data points help build a more complete view of a consumer’s financial profile, supporting greater access and accountability over time.”

As South Africa looks to expanding regulation to support BNPL, the financial sector is showing growing alignment around the principles of transparency, affordability, and responsible innovation. From credit bureaus and FinTechs to retailers and regulators, the shared goal is to ensure that digital credit tools enhance rather than undermine consumer wellbeing.

“The FinTech industry has a collective responsibility to innovate with purpose,” says Zürcher-Campbell. “That means designing products that empower South Africans to make better financial decisions, not just more transactions. When people understand and control their financial choices, they can move from survival to real wellness.”

“Being recognised for the sixth year in South Africa is a strong endorsement of our consistent people practices,” said Lee Naik, CEO of TransUnion Africa. “We remain focused on building a culture grounded in trust, inclusion and leadership development because business success starts with empowered people.”

The TEI certification follows a rigorous HR Best Practices Survey across six domains and 20 topics, including People Strategy, Work Environment, Talent Acquisition, Learning, Diversity, Equity and Inclusion, and Wellbeing. TransUnion’s recognition reflects a people strategy deeply aligned with its business objectives and purpose. Employees play an active role in shaping strategies through structured engagement, continuous listening and feedback loops that build trust and alignment across the organisation.

Agile workforce planning helps anticipate future skills needs, ensuring employees are supported to build capabilities that allow them to thrive in a fast-changing environment. Flexibility and trust remain central to the work experience. Employees are empowered to manage how and where they work, guided by clear hybrid policies and supported by collaborative spaces that encourage connection and innovation.

Wellbeing is embedded in everyday work design. Initiatives include wellness days, protected time to disconnect and wellness weeks focused on holistic health. Regular assessments ensure these programmes remain relevant and responsive. Psychological safety is also a priority, in an environment where employees feel free to speak up, share ideas and collaborate openly, fueling innovation and belonging.

Leadership development is a cornerstone of TransUnion’s approach in which a clear strategy and competency framework guide growth, supported by measurable outcomes and feedback. Career development is actively promoted through internal mobility, mentoring and sponsored learning opportunities. In 2025, more than one in ten employees advanced through internal promotions, underscoring the company’s commitment to building long-term careers. Within the GCC Africa, investment in learnerships and early-career programmes continue to nurture future leaders and expand access to employment opportunities, strengthening talent sustainability.

“Our people are central to how we deliver impact at scale,” said Shobana Maikoo, Head of GCC Africa. “This recognition reflects our focus on growing skills, developing leaders and creating an environment where individuals feel supported and connected.”

Continued certification across South Africa, Kenya and GCC Africa highlights a consistent, integrated approach to people strategy and workplace culture across regions. In 2026, the Top Employers Institute certified more than 2,400 organisations in 125 countries, positively impacting over 13 million employees worldwide. TransUnion’s inclusion among this group underscores its commitment to excellence in people practices across Africa.

South African households are showing signs of meaningful financial adaptation amid ongoing cost pressures, according to TransUnion’s latest Q4 2025 Consumer Pulse Study. While inflation and affordability challenges persist, consumers are becoming more intentional in their financial management, tightening budgets, prioritising savings, and building greater digital and financial awareness.

“Consumers are entering 2026 with a renewed sense of financial discipline,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “We’re seeing households make more deliberate choices, reducing non-essential spending, paying down debt and preparing for the future. This speaks to a financial confidence grounded in awareness and adaptability.”

Financial Adaptation in a High-Cost Environment

Nearly half (48%) of South Africans said their household finances were better than planned in Q4 2025, a sign of growing stability in an economy still defined by high living costs. Yet, 36% of consumers anticipate being unable to meet at least one bill or loan payment in full, revealing the continued strain on affordability.

In response, many households are taking deliberate steps to manage their finances. Half have reduced discretionary spending on non-essential activities such as dining out, entertainment, and travel, while more than a third (34%) have cancelled subscriptions or memberships. At the same time, 38% of consumers plan to increase their contributions toward retirement savings or investments, 35% are accelerating debt repayments, and 27% are setting aside more in emergency funds or stokvels.

These actions suggest that South Africans are not merely reacting to economic pressure but are intentionally strengthening their financial resilience. “Consumers are demonstrating a more strategic approach to money management,” said Hatea. “They’re preserving stability today while laying the groundwork for tomorrow.”

Younger Optimism Meets Experienced Caution

Generational insights reveal that financial resilience takes on different forms across age groups. Younger consumers, particularly Gen Z (18-28 years) and Millennials (29-44 years), tend to be the most optimistic about their financial future and are also the most likely to apply for new credit within the next year, with 42% and 39% expressing this intent, respectively.

In contrast, Gen X (45-60 years) and Baby Boomers (61+) demonstrate a more cautious approach, with only 33% and 9% likely to seek new credit, instead prioritising debt reduction and savings. Spending patterns further illustrate this divide: younger consumers plan to increase their spending on digital services such as internet and other discretionary activities like dining out or travel, while older generations indicate they will prioritise boosting retirement funds and strengthening emergency savings in the coming months.

Credit Access and Inclusion

Credit remains a vital tool for long-term financial mobility, with 91% of South Africans recognising its importance in achieving their financial goals. Yet, access to credit is uneven: only 42% feel they have adequate access, while 33% believe they do not. Despite this strong demand, just 36% plan to apply for new credit or refinance existing debt over the next year, with credit cards (30%), personal loans (28%), and car loans (20%) among the most popular products.

However, 44% of those who considered applying ultimately decided against it, citing barriers such as high borrowing costs (33%), fear of rejection due to their credit history (26%), and concerns over income or employment (24%).

“These findings highlight a need for more inclusive and transparent lending models,” said Hatea. “Consumers believe that a broader use of alternative data, such as rental or buy-now-pay-later payment histories can help extend fair access to credit while supporting responsible borrowing.”

Digital Fraud Threats Drive Demand for Simplified Protection Tools

Digital fraud continues to pose a significant threat to South Africans, with 59% targeted in Q4 and 12% falling victim. The most commonly reported schemes include money or gift card scams (32%), vishing (30%), phishing (29%), and smishing (27%). Despite these threats, 46% of consumers successfully detected and avoided fraud, reflecting growing vigilance. Among those affected by data breaches, 42% changed their passwords, 35% checked accounts for unauthorised activity, 30% closed compromised accounts, and only 16% signed up for identity monitoring.

In the past two months, reacting to security concerns, 58% changed passwords, 23% enabled multi-factor authentication, and 37% checked their credit reports. Yet, many remain unsure how to respond: 53% of those who took no action cited uncertainty about the steps to take, while 22% felt overwhelmed by cybersecurity information.

Empowered and Financially Aware Consumers

Financial awareness among South Africans continues to rise, with 93% recognising the importance of credit monitoring. Engagement with credit reports is also increasing, with 31% checking monthly, 16% weekly, and 8% daily.

Nearly half of consumers believe their credit score would improve if alternative data, such as rental payments or buy-now-pay-later histories, were considered, particularly among younger generations.

“This growing awareness of credit health is encouraging,” said Hatea. “Consumers are becoming more proactive and engaged, and that creates a powerful opportunity for businesses and lenders to support them with relevant, transparent financial tools.”

Building Financial Confidence for the Future

The Q4 findings paint a picture of a nation adapting with purpose, cautious but confident, pragmatic yet forward-looking. As South Africans continue to manage affordability pressures, the emphasis on long-term financial planning, inclusion, and protection is reshaping how consumers engage with the financial system.

“Resilience has become the defining characteristic of South African consumers,” said Hatea. “They’re not waiting for conditions to change, they’re taking control of their financial journeys, showing that confidence and caution can coexist.”

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.

Notes to Editors: An online survey of 992 adults in South Africa was conducted between 25 September and 9 October 2025 by TransUnion with Dynata, using an online panel across desktop, mobile, and tablet. The survey, administered in English, included respondents aged 18 and older from all regions, with quotas applied to ensure demographic representation by age, gender, household income, race, and region. Generational groups were defined as follows: Gen Z (18–28), Millennials (29–44), Gen X (45–60), and Baby Boomers (61+).

TransUnion’s Q3 2025 South Africa Industry Insights Report highlights key trends in the South Africa credit market: vehicle asset finance continued its recovery, with stable account volumes and rising balances supported by longer loan terms and more affordable vehicle choices. Credit card usage expanded, with total book balances growing faster than account volumes, even as average balances per card remained stable and new account credit limits were reduced. Non-bank personal loans surged, driven by higher-risk consumers, though elevated delinquencies underscore the importance of strong affordability checks and consumer safeguards.

These shifting patterns in credit demand, usage and risk occurred against the backdrop of a cautiously improving economy. A 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut in July, driven by favourable inflation trends, gave consumers some relief. However, unemployment remained high^[1] at 31.9% for the quarter, highlighting persistent labour pressures that constrained the wallets of many consumers.

Within this context, the credit market showed signs of strategic adjustment. Consumers — especially younger cohorts — relied more on credit to manage day-to-day expenses and cash flow, while lenders recalibrated growth and risk strategies.

Vehicle Asset Finance Recovery Extended

South Africa’s vehicle finance market grew for the third consecutive quarter, driven by younger consumers in prime and below-prime risk tiers. New account originations rose 17.2% year-over-year (YoY), with the average new loan amount increasing to R412,000, up from R400,962 a year earlier.

Growth was supported by a shift in the used-to-new financing ratio, which fell from 2.67 in Q3 2020 to 1.03 in Q3 2025. Near-parity between new and used financing reflects the availability of budget-friendly new models, often compact or entry-level, that have narrowed the cost gap.

Consumers also opted for longer loan terms, prioritising monthly affordability over total lifetime financing cost. In Q3 2025, 49.6% of loans were for 72 months or longer, up from 38.2% four years ago and 45.6% in Q3 2024.

First-time buyer participation remained strong at 42% of originations, slightly up from 40% a year earlier. Nearly one-third (32%) of originations were to Gen Z consumers (born 1995–2010). Among first-time buyers, 80% were prime or below^[2], compared to 48% for existing borrowers.

Account-level delinquencies stayed elevated at 7.2%, which underscores the need for early warning and pre-delinquency outreach, especially for borrowers showing signs of payment strain and increased reliance on credit.

“The market is stabilising away from the post-pandemic skew toward used vehicles, supporting consumers’ preferences for warranty coverage and predictable maintenance while expanding inclusion and access,” said Hatea. “In an increasingly competitive market, lenders need to calibrate loan terms, deposits, and residual values to match current conditions and customise products and insurance bundles for segments returning to new purchases.”

Credit Cards Reinforced Role as Financial Buffers for Consumers

Consumers remained under pressure: more than four in ten (41%) households said their income was not keeping up with inflation in Q3 2025, and 77% listed inflation for everyday goods as a top concern, according to TransUnion’s Q3 Consumer Pulse Study.

As consumers sought liquidity amid these concerns, credit card originations rose 13.8% YoY, although average credit limits on new cards issued fell 9.8% YoY. Outstanding balances increased 7.7% YoY, and average balances per card were up 2.6% YoY. The risk mix of card originations shifted towards higher risk borrowers: subprime consumers comprised 58.3% of new cards opened in Q3 2025, up from 52.4% a year earlier, while the share held by prime and above borrowers declined.

Lower credit limits on new cards likely reflect lenders’ efforts to manage affordability and mitigate risk exposure, even as originations skewed toward higher-risk borrowers.

Account-level delinquency increased to 12.7%. This, along with a heavier subprime mix, stable balances, and lower credit lines suggests that lenders have deliberately shifted their focus to riskier borrowers to fuel growth.

Consumers also managed their financial obligations by taking out additional credit. This was evident in the Q3 2025 TransUnion Consumer Pulse Report which found that nearly one third (30%) of surveyed consumers stated that they took an additional credit product to pay off an existing credit product during the quarter.

“While lenders seek growth, they are simultaneously tightening credit lines and deploying early interventions to protect portfolio quality,” said Hatea. “Dynamic credit line strategies and early interventions are key. Expanding pre-delinquency outreach and offering short-term hardship solutions can prevent roll-through into missed payments beyond three months, especially for subprime consumers carrying larger balances.”

Bank and Non-Bank Personal Loan Trends Diverged Further

Differences in growth and risk patterns between bank and non-bank lenders widened in Q3 2025. Banks expanded cautiously, focusing on larger, purposeful loans, while non-bank lenders grew through smaller, short-term loans aimed at higher-risk segments. These shifts reflect differing consumer targeting strategies of the two lender groups and increasing affordability pressures on higher-risk borrowers.

Bank-issued personal loan originations rose 7.6% YoY, with average new loan amounts up 9.3% YoY, reinforcing a trend toward larger loans for purposeful borrowing. However, the number of consumers carrying a personal loan balance fell 3.6% from the previous quarter, suggesting loan consolidation and/or repayment by borrowers. Account-level delinquency reached 28.1%, indicating repayment strain despite banks’ disciplined approach to growth and proactive measures to manage long-term defaults.

Non-bank personal loan originations rose 8.5% YoY, but average new personal loan amounts fell by the same margin of 8.5%. Average balances per account dropped 31.9% YoY, showing that these loans are increasingly used for short-term or emergency needs rather than financing larger purchases or debt consolidation. Risk indicators deteriorated sharply: account-level delinquencies surged upwards to 49.4%, highlighting rising financial stress among non-bank personal loan borrowers, compounded by a greater concentration of subprime consumers.

“Personal loan lenders need to balance access with sustainability,” said Hatea. “Stronger affordability checks and better early warning systems can prevent roll-through into deeper delinquency. Proactive engagement with at-risk consumers and tailored hardship solutions will help preserve portfolio health while maintaining access to credit.”

Table 1: Key South African Credit Market Metrics (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

 *Account-level serious delinquency rate, measured as a percentage of accounts three or more months in arrears

With an improving macroeconomic environment, driven by moderating inflation and associated interest rate cuts, continued shifts in the consumer credit market are to be expected. However, Hatea concluded: “Even though there are cautious signs of improvement, lenders and policymakers must remain agile when balancing growth with resilience. Refining segmentation strategies and enhancing early risk detection will be key to supporting consumer financial health and maintaining long-term portfolio stability.”
 

^[1] Trading Economics South Africa Unemployment Rate

^[2] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).

South Africa’s automotive market shifted into top gear in the third quarter of 2025, posting its strongest sales performance in more than a decade as greater macro-economic stability, easing interest rates and a firmer rand supported renewed consumer demand. According to TransUnion’s Q3 2025 Mobility Insights Report, total new-passenger-vehicle sales reached 111 697 units, 23.4% higher year-on-year (YoY), while new vehicle inflation dropped to a record low of 1.5% (since tracking began in 2008), creating one of the most competitive pricing environments in recent memory.

“Affordability and choice are redefining South Africa’s automotive landscape,” says Lee Naik, CEO TransUnion Africa. “Consumers are seeking greater value and flexibility and manufacturers that meet this demand through innovation and pricing discipline are winning the race for growth.”

Affordability Drives Record Growth and Market Realignment

Although established OEMs returned to positive growth in Q2 and Q3 2025, the market’s transformation is being led by Chinese manufacturers expanding nearly nine times faster than the overall market, with YoY growth of 89% in Q2 and 88% in Q3.

Their combined share has quadrupled since 2021 to more than 15%, powered by competitively priced, feature-rich SUVs and sedans that appeal to cost-conscious yet tech-savvy buyers. Top-performing value brands YoY included JAC (67% volume increase), GWM (54%), Mahindra (42%) and Chery (35%), while BMW (27%) proved that premium marques can still thrive by combining desirability with strong product pipelines.

“This isn’t a short-term surge, it’s a structural reset,” adds Naik. “The success of value-driven models shows how affordability, technology and trust are now the true levers of brand growth in South Africa.”

Younger and High-Income Buyers Sustain Demand

Despite surging sales, TransUnion’s recent Consumer Pulse Survey shows a modest easing in purchase intent, with the share of respondents likely to buy a vehicle in the next three months declining from 19% in Q2 to 17% in Q3. The report suggests that current sales momentum is being driven primarily by pent-up demand, dealer incentives and fleet renewals, rather than broad-based consumer confidence.

Purchase behaviour also remains sharply segmented across both age and income groups. Younger consumers continue to lead intent, with 21% of Gen Z and 19% of Millennials planning to buy a vehicle in the next three months, compared to 13% of Gen X and 8% of Baby Boomers. From an income perspective, high-income households earning R200 000 or more per month show the strongest intent at 34%, while middle- and lower-income consumers remain significantly more cautious in their purchasing outlook.

Electrification: A Tale of Price and Generation

Internal-combustion vehicles (ICE) remain the single largest category in consumer purchase intent, accounting for 42% of consumer preference, while interest in hybrid (39%) and plug-in hybrid (24%) models is steadily increasing. The shift toward electrification is most pronounced among Gen Z consumers, with 55% favouring hybrids and 32% considering battery-electric vehicles (BEVs).

This generational shift toward greener technology is evident among high-income buyers, with 75% considering plug-in hybrids, driven primarily by their perceived affordability. In contrast, preference for ICE vehicles remains largely affordability-based among lower-income segments. Higher budgets within affluent households enable greater consideration of hybrid electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV), and battery electric vehicles (BEV), reinforcing an emerging “electrification divide.” This dynamic presents a significant opportunity for OEMs and financiers to tailor product offerings and financing strategies to meet the distinct needs of different age and income segments.

Connected Cars: Data Becomes the New Engine

Q3’s Mobility Insights Report special feature, The Connected Road, explores how connected-car technology is transforming mobility. Connectivity is now standard in most post-2015 vehicles, enabling real-time navigation, predictive maintenance, remote access, and advanced safety systems. Yet global data warns of “connectivity fatigue”: Over three quarters (76%) of drivers internationally don’t subscribe to connected services, mainly due to cost.

Naik says: “South Africa has a chance to leapfrog global missteps by focusing on value-adding applications, safer driving, cheaper insurance and smarter maintenance rather than gimmicks.”

Exports Rebound and Dealer Confidence Climbs

Passenger-vehicle unit exports rose 4.1% YoY after a steep Q2 contraction, driven by a 63.7% September surge that lifted shipments to a six-year high. Meanwhile, the RMB/BER Motor Traders Confidence Index advanced to 54, marking its second net-positive reading of 2025 and notably placing it above the neutral 50-point mark, which signals growing dealer optimism amid sustained sales momentum and improving export conditions.

Balancing Value and Transformation

The convergence of affordability, segmentation, electrification, and connectivity signals a pivotal shift in the automotive industry. “The future belongs to brands and financiers that master both the value-driven present and the connected, electrified future,” concludes Naik. “Data-led insight will be the bridge that connects today’s strategies with tomorrow’s innovation

Read the full TransUnion South Africa Q3 2025 Mobility Insights Report here.

According to the newly released TransUnion® (NYSE: TRU) H2 2025 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report, the rate of suspected digital fraud^[1] was the highest in the consumer lifecycle at account login for South Africa with 2.6% of those types of transaction attempts when the consumer was in the country being suspected of digital fraud in the first half (H1) of 2025. This aligns with a global trend of fraud shifting to account takeover attempts which typically occur at login. Globally, 4.3% of account login transactions in H1 2025 were suspected of digital fraud.

The report, which draws on proprietary data from TransUnion’s global intelligence network from billions of transactions from over 40,000 websites and apps and a consumer survey across 18 countries, reveals that fraud is growing.

“South Africa stands at a critical juncture in its digital evolution where opportunity and vulnerability intersect. As the nation embraces rapid digital transformation, the surge in online activity has inadvertently opened new doors for fraudsters, whose tactics are growing more sophisticated by the day. This convergence of accelerated digital adoption, economic strain and criminal innovation has created a complex risk landscape,” said Amritha Reddy, senior director of fraud product management TransUnion Africa.

According to analysis of TransUnion’s customers in its global intelligence network, digital account takeover volume worldwide grew 21% year-over-year (YoY) from H1 2024 to H1 2025, signalling a rapid escalation. The volume of digital account takeovers surged 141% from H1 2021 to H1 2025, underscoring persistent rise of this fraud type over time and reflecting the increasing sophistication of fraudsters who exploit stolen credentials and bypass authentication systems.

"As account takeover fraud surges, businesses can no longer afford solely reactive defences,” said Reddy. “The growing sophistication of fraudsters demands a proactive investment in layered security and identity intelligence. In today’s threat landscape, protecting customer accounts is not just a priority, it’s a business imperative."

Highest Rate of Suspected Digital Fraud in Video Gaming

Among industries analysed globally, the video gaming sector recorded the highest percentage of suspected digital fraud attempts in the first half of 2025, reaching 13.5%. This represents a significant 28% rate increase compared to the same period in 2024, underscoring the growing vulnerability of this sector to fraudulent activity.

For transactions where the consumer was in South Africa, the rate of suspected digital fraud attempts from February to May 2025 was the highest in video gaming at 7.7%. The greatest increase in the volume of digital transactions suspected to be fraudulent over that time was in the insurance industry, with a 154% uptick.

Chart 2: Suspected Digital Fraud Attempts in South Africa, by Sector

^{Source: TransUnion global intelligence network}

“As the risk from consumer scams threatens identity integrity, organisations should rely on a mixture of data, risk signals, technology and tools to prevent fraud,” said Reddy. “The Report highlights that business leaders rank^[2] identity verification, device reputation and behavioural biometrics as the leading three fraud prevention technologies.

“Businesses and financial institutions should also invest in sustained education and awareness campaigns to mitigate against schemes like account takeovers. Preventing fraud must by necessity be a multi-pronged strategy, if businesses and consumers are to stay ahead of fraudsters whose strategies continue to evolve too,” she said. “By harnessing advanced technologies, fostering cross-sector collaboration, and prioritising consumer trust, South Africa can chart a path toward a secure and inclusive digital future.”

Consumer-Reported Exposure to Fraud Grows Amid Gaps in Awareness and Prevention

Globally, consumers continue to face a wide range of scams, with tactics often tailored to regional behaviours and vulnerabilities. TransUnion’s survey found that 48% of consumers surveyed globally reported being targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud from February to May 2025, with 59% of South Africans saying the same thing. Globally, 52% were unaware that they were targeted, as were 42% of South Africans, indicating potential fraud under-recognition and a gap in fraud awareness.

Consumers in five of the six African countries surveyed reported money or gift card scams as the most experienced fraud type. In South Africa money or gift card scams was the most common fraud type – reported by 33% of those who said they were targeted with email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud from February to May 2025. Among those South Africans who said they were targeted, the next most frequently reported scams were phishing (31%), smishing (30%), and vishing (29%), with these three designed to deceive individuals into giving up their valuable personal or financial information.

South Africa Saw the Greatest Percentage of Respondents in Africa Indicating They Fell Victim to Fraud from February to May 2025

^{Source: TransUnion consumer survey}

“As scammers continue to evolve their tactics to enrich themselves, it’s more important than ever for consumers to regularly review their credit reports to ensure all listed information is accurate,” said Reddy.”

TransUnion came to its conclusions about digital fraud and data breaches based on intelligence from its array of TransUnion fraud prevention solutions. To learn more about how TransUnion fraud prevention solutions can help businesses avoid fraud and prevent fraud losses, click here.

Specific country and regional data in the report includes South Africa, Botswana, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Kenya, Mexico, Namibia, Nicaragua, the Philippines, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States and Zambia. Download the TransUnion H2 2025 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report for more information and insights about the global fraud trends.

^{[1] Suspected digital fraud attempts reflect those which TransUnion customers determined met one of the following conditions: 1) denial in real time due to fraudulent indicators, 2) denial in real time for corporate policy violations, 3) fraudulent upon customer investigation, or 4) a corporate policy violation upon customer investigation.}

^{[2] As found by TransUnion’s online business survey conducted from 29 May to 6 June 2025 in partnership with third-party research provider, Dynata. Findings were included in TransUnion’s H2 2025 Update to the Top Fraud Trends Report}

Developed with creative agency One Over One and production partner Run Jump Fly, the film fuses artificial intelligence with authentic storytelling to capture the experiences of everyday South Africans navigating the financial system. It serves as both a creative innovation and a powerful social statement – demonstrating how data, when used responsibly, can shine a light on those who are often unseen.

“The AI film is more than a creative milestone; it’s a deeply human story told through the lens of technology. Using AI-generated visuals, the film brings to life the emotional realities behind financial data – the hope of opportunity, the weight of exclusion, and the power of visibility,” said Amy Beck, CMO of TransUnion Africa. “Rooted in empathy and powered by innovation, the film embodies our belief that technology should serve people, not the other way around. It invites viewers to look past the numbers and be part of a movement changing the way we see each other”.

Turning Data into Impact

The AI film builds on the success of TransUnion’s Be the Reason Things Change movement, which has inspired South Africans to act – making the invisible visible and driving meaningful impact across the country.

In just one month, the campaign achieved:

• 10,838 panels peeled nationwide (this includes physical and digital billboard panels), each unlocking access to free credit education e-learning courses, valued at R2,000 each.
• Education fund prizes awarded to five individual winners, valued at R20,000 each, awarded directly to recognised educational institutions or nominated beneficiaries.
• Ten tech-for-learning prizes, worth R7,000 each, comprising of a laptop and 12 months of data, equipping recipients with the tools they need to thrive in a digital-first world.

These results go beyond metrics – they represent real lives changed through knowledge, opportunity and empowerment. One of the five recipients of the R20,000 education fund prize, Roggers Mamaila, shared how the campaign has made a lasting impact on his family’s future: “This contribution towards my family’s education means more than words can express. It’s a tangible step toward a better future – one my family will carry with pride for years to come. It’s proof that when people are seen, real change becomes possible.”

AI with a Purpose

In an age where artificial intelligence often feels distant or impersonal, TransUnion’s new film reframes the narrative – showing how innovation, when guided by empathy, can accelerate financial inclusion and create lasting change.

Unlike many AI-driven creative pieces that use artificial intelligence in fragments – generating snippets, visuals, or voiceovers – this film is a fully integrated, end-to-end AI production. From concept to execution, every aspect of the film was shaped using AI tools, making it a first-of-its kind on the African continent. What sets this film apart is not just its use of technology, but its authenticity and purpose. The film draws its narrative from real lives and lived experiences, transforming data into emotion, and statistics into stories that matter.

Every frame is a reflection of the campaign’s core belief: that visibility leads to change. This isn’t just an experiment in technology – it’s a movement in storytelling. The piece invites viewers to rethink what’s possible when technology and trust work together – to see every data point as a story, every statistic as a person, and every innovation as a chance to drive inclusion.

The campaign continues to challenge traditional notions of creditworthiness by advocating for alternative data and inclusive scoring models that better reflect the realities of underserved communities.

Watch the AI brand film and learn more at: https://www.transunion.co.za/bethereason

Why Knowing Your Credit Score Matters

Traditionally, your credit score is a snapshot of how well you have managed credit and debt in the past, based on the information in your credit report. Lenders, landlords, insurers, and even employers sometimes use it (or check related credit data) to assess risk. If your score is strong, you could qualify for better interest rates or favourable credit terms. But if it’s weak or contains errors, you might end up paying more or having applications declined.

But it’s not just about access. Reviewing your own credit report gives you valuable insight into your financial history. It shows you what accounts are open, whether payments were missed, and if any accounts were opened fraudulently in your name. That kind of awareness helps you move from being passive to active in managing your financial life.

This shift is already visible in South Africa. According to TransUnion’s Q3 2025 Consumer Pulse Study, 35% of respondents checked their credit report for signs of fraudulent activity, while 51% did so to improve their credit score.

Fatgie Adams, Head of Credit Risk Solutions at TransUnion, explains: “Understanding your credit report and score is one of the simplest yet most powerful ways to take control of your financial future.”

Given that many South Africans expect to apply for or refinance credit in the coming year (about 37%, according to the same study), knowing where you stand becomes even more critical.

Three Simple Ways to Understand Your Credit Score

Understanding your credit score doesn’t require fancy tools or technical knowledge. Here are three clear, practical steps to help you take charge:

1. Go Through Your Credit Report

Start by accessing your credit report, many credit bureaus or services offer free or low-cost access. Review the main sections carefully:

• Active accounts: Which credit lines or loans are currently open?
• Payment history: Were payments made on time, or were any missed?
• Credit inquiries: Who has recently requested access to your credit information?
• Balances vs. limits: How much of your available credit are you using?

Going through each section helps you spot errors (for example, an unexpected account) or identify areas for improvement. This simple exercise turns your credit score from a mystery number into a tool you can understand and manage.

2. Understand How Everyday Habits Affect Your Score

Many people assume a credit score is fixed, but it changes over time, and many factors are within your control:

• Pay on time: Late or missed payments often have the biggest negative impact.
• Use credit conservatively: Using less than 30% of your available credit generally helps your score.
• Avoid multiple new credit lines at once: Too many recent applications can signal risk to lenders.
• Be consistent: A steady, predictable credit history is viewed more favourably than big fluctuations.

3. Review Regularly to Catch Fraud or Changes Early

Credit monitoring isn’t just about improving your score it’s also a defence against fraud. Make it a habit to:

• Check your credit report every few months, or before major financial decisions.
• Look for new accounts you didn’t open.
• Check for unfamiliar credit enquiries.
• Compare balances against known credit limits.
• Dispute any suspicious entries promptly.

Treat reviewing your credit report as a financial hygiene routine, one that helps you catch issues early before they escalate. Adams adds: “Reviewing your credit report data regularly helps you see how daily decisions affect your score. That visibility lets you catch issues before they become serious.”

Why This Matters Beyond Individuals

Many South Africans continue to face challenges accessing formal credit and quality financial services. Traditional systems often feel exclusive, especially for underserved individuals and small businesses, because formal credit systems rely heavily on past borrowing behaviour as the main measure of creditworthiness.

According to TransUnion’s CreditVision® Telco Data Score modelling, over 1.4 million credit-invisible South Africans open new credit accounts each year, contributing to more than four million new accounts over the past three years. Yet traditional scoring models frequently fail to assess these consumers accurately, leaving over 16 million adults outside the formal credit system. Successfully integrating these and other excluded consumers into the economy could contribute an estimated R173 billion to South Africa’s GDP.

TransUnion is shifting the paradigm by embracing alternative data and developing new scoring models for example, using utility or mobile payment patterns (with user consent) to ensure that individuals who were once unclassifiable can now be assessed fairly and accurately. Its “Be the Reason Things Change” campaign responds to this need by equipping the public with practical tools, credit education, and the confidence to take charge of their financial futures.

“Greater credit visibility and education can lead to fairer interest rates, fewer surprises in loan applications, and stronger trust in financial systems,” says Adams. “When more people are credit-aware, lenders and markets work better too. Credit education is not a niche luxury; it’s a critical tool for building financial resilience and inclusion.”

TransUnion’s latest research into South Africa’s FinTech lending market reveals critical insights into borrower behaviour, loyalty and risk based on an analysis of 4.3 million South Africa consumers. The study highlights patterns that present both opportunities and challenges when navigating a rapidly digitising credit ecosystem.

South Africa’s FinTech sector is undergoing rapid transformation, signalling a major shift in how consumers will engage with credit in the next five years, and beyond. As digital adoption accelerates, lenders will need to adapt their approach to South African consumers if they’re to attract, retain and grow relationships with digitally engaged borrowers.

Emerging FinTechs are offering diverse solutions such as buy now, pay later (BNPL) loans with interest free payments, flexible financing for small and medium enterprises, point-of-sale credit and insurance coverage. Financial services are now more accessible than ever before. However, it’s essential that the lenders behind these solutions understand who is using them, how they engage with credit, and whether borrowers’ loyalty can help drive sustainable growth.

“As competition intensifies and regulatory frameworks evolve, lenders must go beyond product innovation and develop a deeper understanding of consumer behaviour,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “Our study offers a data-driven lens into the FinTech borrower profile, helping lenders build loyalty, manage risk, and drive inclusion.”

TransUnion analysed South Africans who held at least one open FinTech credit obligation in Q4 2024, including long-term personal loans, short-term personal loans and credit cards, to learn more about the consumers driving growth in the sector. The study examined risk profiles, delinquency trends, product breadth, and loyalty patterns among FinTech borrowers. Further, the study compared those characteristics to similar-risk consumers using traditional lender products only (non-FinTech borrowers^[1]), providing a deeper understanding of growth opportunities for South Africa’s credit market.

Five Themes Shaping FinTech Lending Strategy

1.     FinTechs are not yet the main gateway to financial inclusion.

Despite South Africa’s high mobile penetration^[2], 69% of New-to-Credit consumers – those with no prior reported credit history – enter the market via retail accounts, with clothing accounts being the most common first product. FinTechs have an opportunity to reposition themselves as enablers of financial inclusion by partnering with retailers and mobile ecosystems to reach underserved segments.

2.     FinTech borrowers are concentrated in below prime risk tiers^[3].

While many FinTech borrowers have experience managing credit, 95% of FinTech borrowers with 0–1 month loans are in below prime risk tiers, compared to 29% for bank borrowers and 69% for non-bank lender borrowers. For 2–12 month loans, 94% of FinTech borrowers are below prime, in contrast to 58% for banks and 50% for non-banks. This highlights greater risk exposure among the FinTech borrower base and suggests that FinTech lenders could benefit from leveraging trended and alternative data to better predict repayment risk and reduce delinquency rates, particularly among below-prime borrowers.

3.     FinTech borrowers are not all underserved.

Among 0–1 month term borrowers, 44% of FinTech consumers already hold two or three credit products and 27% hold four or more, debunking the assumption that FinTech borrowers have limited access to credit. Additionally, more than 56% of FinTech personal loan borrowers hold credit products with non-FinTech lenders. These multi-lender relationships underscore the need for lenders to view borrowing patterns holistically and better understand the reasons why borrowers may be seeking credit from different lender types, in order to develop strategies for capturing more of their customers’ wallets.

4.     FinTech borrowers underperform on repayments.

While there are no material differences by lender type for longer-term loans, there are significant differences for 0-1 month loans. This is an important consideration as these shorter-term loans are more likely to be used by borrowers earlier in their credit journeys when they are potentially more financially vulnerable. After controlling for borrower risk score, delinquency rates (consumers 2+ months in arrears on a loan) were highest among FinTech borrowers: The consumer-level delinquencies were 74% for 0–1 month loans from FinTechs compared to lower rates for bank loans (53%) and non-bank lender loans (53%), underscoring the need for enhanced risk management strategies tailored to the FinTech segment.

5.     FinTech borrowers are loyal to FinTech lenders

TransUnion’s research provides compelling evidence of borrower loyalty within the FinTech lending ecosystem. Among consumers who originated a 0–1 month personal loan, 65% opened another 0–1 month loan within 12 months, and 93% of those chose a FinTech lender. More than one fifth (21%) of these borrowers progressed to a 2–12 month loan, with 80% remaining with FinTech providers.

Among consumers who started with a 2–12 month personal loan, 95% opened another 2–12 month loan, with 60% choosing a FinTech lender. In addition, 85% of these borrowers also opened a 0–1 month loan, and 38% did so with FinTech lenders. These patterns demonstrate a strong preference among borrowers to remain within the FinTech category, even as they take loans over longer time periods. This loyalty presents a strategic opportunity for FinTech lenders to deepen relationships through personalised engagement, targeted product offerings, and proactive risk management.

However, loyalty in product originations does not necessarily translate into repayment prioritisation. When consumers hold loans with both FinTech and non-FinTech lenders, they tend to prioritise repayments to traditional institutions. Among consumers with 2–12 term personal loans from both FinTech and non-FinTech non-bank lenders, delinquency measured as 1+ month in arrears was 33% for FinTechs, compared to 26% for non-FinTech non-bank lenders. Similarly, for those with loans from both FinTechs and banks, delinquency was 30% for FinTechs versus 28% for banks.

The takeaway for lenders is that while FinTech borrowers are loyal in terms of repeat borrowing, they may deprioritise FinTech repayments when under financial pressure. This highlights the need for FinTech lenders to strengthen their engagement strategies, build trust, and implement early intervention tools to improve repayment outcomes and long-term value.

“If lenders are to benefit from the anticipated growth in the FinTech lending market, it’s essential that they offer financial literacy and awareness education to help consumers understand how responsible credit use can support their financial goals. Once consumers have opened FinTech-issued products, lenders can activate lifestyle triggers to anticipate consumer progression so that they can deliver timely, relevant engagement to drive loyalty and long-term value. This can be further supported by deploying predelinquency models to identify early signs of consumer stress, and to initiate recovery efforts before risk escalates,” said Hatea.

^{[1] FinTech consumers were those with an open FinTech long-term personal loan, short-term personal loan, or credit card. Non-FinTech consumers were a control group with no FinTech obligations of any type in their history, who held a long-term personal loan, short term personal loan or credit card from a non-FinTech lender}

^{[2] 118,600,000 connections across 60,690,000 people https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2024-south-africa}

^{[3] Scores are based on TransUnion’s CreditVision® generic scoring methodology. Risk distribution key: subprime (0-625), near prime (626-655), prime (656-695), prime plus (696-720), super prime (721-999).}

These assumptions include that younger consumers do not value credit, they are disengaged from the credit market, are irresponsible with debt, have low appetite for new credit, lack loyalty to lenders, and struggle to meet payment obligations.

They could also partly explain South Africa’s low 13% credit card market penetration among both Millennials (aged 29 to 44) and Gen Z (aged 18 to 28). Furthermore, Gen Z consumers adopt credit cards and personal loans at half the rate that Millennials did at the same age, suggesting limited growth for lenders as these consumers age.

“Our research suggests systemic barriers to credit access in South Africa, rather than a lack of demand,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion South Africa. “It also highlights that lenders have opportunities to innovate in product design, onboarding and education to empower these consumers to manage everyday expenses and unexpected financial needs as they progress towards achieving key life milestones.”

To challenge perceptions about younger consumers, TransUnion South Africa conducted a focused study^[1] to test lenders’ perceptions, analysing participation, engagement and repayment behaviour among the country’s 4.3 million credit-active population aged 18 to 30.

Myth 1: Younger consumers don’t value credit

More than six in 10 (62%) younger consumers believe that access to credit is important to achieve their financial goals^[2], with 76% saying that credit can give them access to new opportunities that could lead to a better quality of life. Younger consumers’ favourable perception of credit exceeds that of older consumers, 57% of whom believe access is important, and 71% of whom believe that access to credit can unlock new opportunities. However, less than a quarter (24%) of young consumers view credit as a risk to prudent financial management.

“Younger consumers increasingly see credit as a way to achieve their financial goals – even more so than older consumers,” Hatea said. “With most disagreeing that applying for credit signals poor financial management, it’s clear that opportunities exist for segment-focused products supported by financial literacy initiatives.”

Myth 2: Younger consumers are disengaged and don’t participate in the credit market

Nearly four in 10 (39%) young consumers feel that they have sufficient access to credit and lending products, with 49% believing that they would be approved for a credit product if they needed one.

It’s worth noting that, over time, consumers’ choice of credit product shifts. Reviewing credit card originations across a six-year period showed similar trends across time: 2% of 18 year old credit active consumers hold a credit card, compared to 19% of 30 year olds. Their participation in secured credit products increases with age, reaching parity with the general population by 30 and reflecting life stage realities like income, affordability and asset ownership, rather than disengagement.

“These shifts show that young consumers are engaged with the credit market, particularly with unsecured products, but their participation evolves across product types and life stages,” Hatea said.

Myth 3: Younger consumers are irresponsible in leveraging debt

Credit utilisation and average balances are well aligned with risk-based access that improves with age. At age 21, 95% of consumers are classified as subprime, dropping to 74% by age 30, reflecting a maturing credit profile.

Despite limited access, younger borrowers demonstrate measured usage: the average credit card balance at age 21 is R11,000, rising to R24,000 by age 30, while utilisation among near-prime consumers increases from 58% to 78% over the same age range.

“These trends highlight responsible engagement with credit and clearly refute the myth that younger consumers overextend their credit exposure, or are reckless with credit,” Hatea said. “As young consumers gain access to larger loan amounts, they move into better risk categories, reflecting greater lender trust in recognition of responsible repayment behaviour.”

Myth 4: Younger consumers have a low appetite for credit, and lack loyalty to lenders

While one third (33%) of the general population intends to apply for new credit within the next year, this increases to 45% for Gen Z consumers. Additionally, 36% of these consumers inquired about new credit over the six years studies, compared to 28% of all consumers. However, only 3.4% of younger consumers return to their first lender for new credit – similar to the 3.6% average across all consumers.

“The data shows that younger consumers do indeed have appetite for credit, while revealing that South African consumers in general are not particularly loyal to their credit providers,” Hatea said. “To build loyalty and retain younger consumers, lenders should invest in early-stage experiences, personalised engagement, and relevant products that build lasting relationships.”

Myth 5: Younger consumes struggle to keep up with their payment obligations

Interestingly, younger consumers show significantly lower risk of delinquency at 30 days past due (DPD) in the first year after opening credit cards, although this rises as they get older: there was a 17% delinquency rate among near prime 18 to 22 year olds, while 30 year olds displayed a 24% delinquency rate.

However, for non-bank loans and bank loans, younger consumers (18 to 24 years old) show slightly higher delinquency rates than older consumers, although younger consumers, especially those aged 23 to 25, perform better than the industry average. This indicates that lender type influences delinquency outcomes, and that younger borrowers may respond differently to the structure, support, or perception of a lender’s credit.

“Younger consumers are effectively managing their loans when compared to industry averages across most products,” said Hatea. “They’re not broadly higher risk, but they may be more vulnerable in certain lending contexts, particularly non-bank personal loans, where product design, support, or affordability may not be well aligned to their needs. Higher delinquency rates on non-bank personal loans can be addressed through early default detection tools.

“By focusing on education, wallet growth, loyalty, alternative data to measure risk, and proactive risk management, lenders can support younger consumers and drive long-term, sustainable growth among these consumers and in the broader credit market,” she said. “Well-managed credit can also be a catalyst for broader economic growth in South Africa.”

^{[1] TransUnion South Africa conducted a focused study to test lenders’ perceptions of consumers aged 18 to 30, analysing participation, engagement and repayment behaviour among the country’s credit-active population in this age group. Data was studied across four time frames (September in 2018, 2022, 2023 and 2024), and included age, risk score, open products in wallet, credit lines, average balances by product and credit utilisation at commencement of the study, new products opened, line assignments and opening loan amounts for six months, and delinquency rates on newly opened products for 12 months. These were compared to overall market averages to evaluate gaps and opportunities.}

^{[2] According to TransUnion’s Q2 2025 Consumer Pulse Survey of 922 adults aged 18 or older, residing in South Africa conducted May 5–25, 2025 by TransUnion in partnership with third-party research provider, Dynata.}

South Africans are managing cost-of-living challenges with a blend of resilience and caution, according to TransUnion’s Q3 2025 Consumer Pulse Study*. The findings reveal that while inflation and affordability remain top concerns, many consumers are maintaining financial optimism while adopting protective behaviours, especially in credit usage and cyber security.

“South Africans are signalling confidence, but it’s a confidence shaped by awareness of risk,” said Ayesha Hatea, director of research and consulting at TransUnion. “Consumers are balancing optimism with caution, adjusting spending habits, making informed credit decisions, and staying vigilant to fraud.”

Financial Confidence, but Rising Costs

Nearly seven in 10 (68%) of South Africans are optimistic about their household finances over the next year, while 75% expect their income to increase during that period. However, this optimism exists alongside strain: 36% of consumers say they expect to be unable to pay at least one of their current bills or loans in full. South Africans were concerned about the impacts of price increases, most particularly for groceries (82%), utilities (60%), fuel for cars (52%) and medical care (52%).

Younger Generations Shape Credit Behaviour

Generational differences continue to define financial habits. Nearly half of Gen Z (18-28 years old, 48%) and Millennials (29-44 years old, 43%) reported they’ll apply for new credit or refinance existing credit in the next year, compared to far lower intent among Gen X (45-60 years old) and Baby Boomers (61-79 years old).

Younger consumers are also driving the adoption of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services with 55% and 59% of Gen Z and Millennials saying they’ve used BNPL in the last 12 months compared to 39% and 19% of Gen X and Baby Boomers, respectively. Overall, 15% of South Africans who have used BNPL in the last year said they did so to afford a larger purchase (furniture, appliances or cars), highlighting both its appeal and potential risks in a high-inflation environment.

Cautious Credit Intent Amid Affordability Pressures

While the vast majority of South Africans (93%) say that access to credit and lending products is important to be able to achieve their financial goals, many remain hesitant to take on new financial products. In fact, 38% said they’ll apply for new credit or refinance existing credit in the next year. Credit awareness among South African consumers remains strong, with 70% agreeing that access to credit can unlock new opportunities and improve quality of life.

This sentiment aligns closely with TransUnion’s financial inclusion priorities, particularly as alternative data becomes a more prominent tool in assessing creditworthiness. The study reveals that consumers are increasingly aware of how credit affects their daily lives, which highlights the importance of expanding access to credit through inclusive data strategies, especially for those traditionally excluded from formal financial systems.

Among those planning to apply for new or refinance existing credit in the next year, unsecured credit products such as personal loans (30%), new credit cards (29%) and BNPL services (22%) are the most popular credit types they said they’ll apply for. In contrast, a lower percentage said they’ll apply for secured credit options like a new car loan or lease (18%) or home loans (16%), highlighting a cautious approach to larger, long-term borrowing.

Nearly Two-Thirds Report Being Targeted with Fraud

Fraud attempts and scams remained high in Q3: 59% of South Africans said they were targeted by email, online, phone call or text messaging fraud in the last three months, the same percentage as Q2. Among those who said they were targeted, the most reported scheme was money/gift card scams (37%), with phishing (28%) and smishing (28%) also widespread.

With the persistence of attacks, consumers are proactively taking action. In fact, 54% of all surveyed said they changed passwords, 35% checked their credit report for any signs of fraudulent activity against their profile, and 27% modified their login to secure login without passwords options or added multi-factor authentication in the last 60 days in response to cyber security concerns.

“Fraudsters are evolving, and consumers are trying to keep pace,” said Hatea. “This is why education and accessible protection tools are so critical in building long-term trust in digital engagement.”

Consumers can get their free annual credit report from TransUnion here.

* TransUnion’s online survey of 966 South African adults was conducted June 17– 31, 2025.